Bitcoin has revisited its peak. Last night, it surged to around 99,500. Market differences remain evident. Those who are bearish see a sluggish market, while the bullish ones are blindly seeking certainty. There's nothing we can do; the current height, the current time point, and the current cycle are all moments of divergence.
In my opinion, if we can't drop below 90,000-92,000, after a period of adjustment, good days in the secondary market are slowly coming. If it breaks down, the adjustment time will be extended. Currently, the short-term probability of a breakdown is low, and we can start looking for trading opportunities in the secondary market. Bitcoin has short-term resistance at 99,500, support at 96,500, and targets at 102-104k.
Last night, I didn't know whether altcoins were driving Bitcoin up or Bitcoin was driving altcoins up, but it doesn't matter anymore. The market's sentiment and confidence are restored. Bitcoin is fluctuating around 100,000, but altcoins have already taken off. In the past two days, the altcoin market revolves around Grayscale's strict selection, such as ZEN, LPT, BAT. Recently ZEN has skyrocketed, and related low-market-cap altcoins in Grayscale have also risen significantly, including LPT, BAT, etc. Another direction revolves around rebounds of new coins on Binance, such as MOVE, ME, etc.
The current logic for playing altcoins:
Follow the big funds, find an angle, and the funds will rush in like a swarm. So I give small fund players a thought: under the current market conditions, the probability of losing money is relatively small. Find a target with institutional concepts, go all in, and take 20-30 points before withdrawing. This is more effective than diversifying funds to buy other targets. Trump is about to take office, and related concept coins should also be speculated soon. In the upcoming altcoin market, everyone can participate according to the logic of the president selecting coins and grayscale strict selection.
Trump's selected coins include: AAVE, ENA, LINK, ETH, ONDO
Trump-related concept coins: RSR, ZRX, COW
Grayscale's selected coins: ETH, ETC, LTC, BCH, SOL, XLM, ZEN, LINK, ZEC, MANA, LPT, FIL, BAT
Bull markets often have sharp declines. Today's Bitcoin adjustment is unlikely to exceed 20%, and Ethereum's adjustment is also unlikely to exceed 40%. Other altcoins adjusting around 30% is quite normal. In a bull market, never go empty-handed, accept minor adjustments, and don't lose sight of the big picture due to small losses. Buying on dips is the current trading strategy. Grasp the upcoming downturn and build positions with the big players. During a downturn, do not fully leverage all positions at once; summarize a motto: Buy small on small dips, buy large on large dips, don't buy when it's not dipping. Sell small on small rises, sell large on large rises, don't sell when it's not rising. As long as you don't chase high prices, the retail investors can turn into profit makers.
The starting point of the new market will occur in early January 2025. Institutions and listed companies will end a year of investment return settlement, and January is a new beginning for Wall Street institutions. Therefore, the probability of big moves will increase in January. North American retail investors will return to the crypto space after the holidays, so be patient for a few more days and wait for the official start of the market. For us, the most important thing is to hold onto our chips and wait for Trump to take office at the beginning of the year, with intensive cryptocurrency policies being released. In the first half of 2025, the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, and more countries will regard Bitcoin as an asset reserve, waiting for the long-anticipated altcoins to usher in a major explosion.
That's all for today. During the bull market phase, many people hope to have a discussion. If you really can't manage in the crypto space, don't force yourself. Come find me to learn, understand the latest information, make plans, embrace the bull market, improve your win rate, and say goodbye to being trapped at high positions.
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