From the latest liquidation map, the current BTC price is 98,041. Combined with the liquidation walls and market data in the chart, the following analysis can be made for next week's market:
1. Liquidation wall analysis
1. Short liquidation wall (red):
• Above the current price of 98,041, the pressure for short liquidation is relatively small, indicating that there are relatively few short leveraged positions in the market.
• However, as the price approaches 102,000-106,000, the volume of short liquidations gradually increases. This area is a potential resistance zone; if the price breaks through here, it may trigger a large number of short liquidations, pushing the price to continue rising.
2. Long liquidation wall (green):
• Below the current price, especially around 95,000-96,000, there is a significant area of concentrated long liquidations.
• If the price retraces to this area, it may trigger long liquidations, leading to further price declines. However, this area may also provide short-term support.
2. Market sentiment and trends
• Fluctuating or upward trend:
• The current market has relatively concentrated long leverage, but the trend of the price approaching the short liquidation wall indicates a bullish market sentiment. If the price continues to break through, a short-term upward trend may occur.
• Potential risks:
• If market sentiment weakens (such as due to macroeconomic factors or negative news), the price may fall back to the long liquidation wall area, creating short-term downward risk.
3. Next week's market forecast
Upward scenario:
• If the price breaks through 102,000-106,000, it may trigger a large number of short liquidations, pushing the price further up to 110,000 or higher.
• The probability of this scenario is relatively high, especially if market sentiment continues to lean bullish.
Downward scenario:
• If the price retraces to around 95,000-96,000, it may trigger long liquidations, causing the price to further test the lower support.
• The probability of a downward scenario is relatively low, but cannot be ignored.
4. Recommended strategy
1. Short-term trading:
• If the price breaks upward past 102,000, a long position can be taken, with a target price of 106,000 or higher.
• If the price drops below 96,000, consider shorting in the short term, with a target near 94,000.
2. Long-term layout:
• Gradually build positions in the 95,000-96,000 range, waiting for the price to rebound.
• Pay attention to the resistance area at 106,000 above, and gradually reduce positions.
3. Risk control:
• Set reasonable stop-losses (such as shorting above 102,000 or going long below 96,000).
• Keep a close eye on market news and capital flows to avoid unexpected events that may trigger significant volatility.
