Bitcoin rebounded as expected after completing a secondary test yesterday, peaking at 99,488, very close to the rebound high of 99,540 on the 21st. However, compared to the trading volume during the drop from the 19th to the 20th, this rebound's trading volume is still relatively small, and the rebound is too steep, lacking sustainability; yesterday, the four indicative Bitcoin spot ETFs—FBTC, ARKB, BITB, and BTC—saw a total net outflow of $149.7 million, continuing the large-scale sell-off of Bitcoin ETFs.
Considering the large number of trapped positions between $100,000 and $103,000, the probability of Bitcoin breaking upwards in such a market environment is relatively low, entering a consolidation phase. However, as long as it does not drop below $97,000, the bullish outlook can continue! Short-term resistance for Bitcoin: $103,000, short-term support: $97,000.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on December 19, but the bank issued a hawkish signal afterward, indicating a slowdown in rate cuts in 2025, with only two cuts of 25 basis points expected next year, less than the four previously anticipated in September, thus causing turbulence in the cryptocurrency market.
Under hawkish pressure, the US dollar index has risen above 108, while Bitcoin cannot hold above the $100,000 mark.
Looking ahead to 2025, Trump will be sworn in on January 20, and the market is focused on the cryptocurrency policies he will implement after taking office, as well as the impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
BCA Research's outlook report points out: 'Currently, the average expectation among FOMC participants is to lower the federal funds rate target range by 50 basis points by 2025, from 4.25%-4.50% to 3.75%-4.00%.'
The research institution believes that with the weakening trend of core PCE inflation and a sluggish job market, 'the rate cut may need to exceed 50 basis points.'
If the recent trend continues, the core PCE inflation rate is expected to reach 2.5% by early 2025. The report states: 'If the monthly core PCE inflation rate reaches the three-month average level, then by March, the 12-month inflation rate will reach 2.5%. If the monthly core PCE inflation rate reaches the six-month average level, then by February, the 12-month inflation rate will also reach 2.5%.'
This indicates that the inflation rate may reach or fall below the Federal Reserve's forecast level earlier than expected.
How much capital is needed to make Shiba Inu (SHIB) worth millions?
According to most analysts' forecasts, the market will see a rebound in early 2025. Subsequently, a period of adjustment is expected in the summer, followed by another rebound from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2025, ultimately reaching the peak of the cycle.
If these predictions come true, SHIB will have two bullish target price levels: one is the March high of $0.00004567, and the other is the 2021 high of $0.00008854. Achieving these two targets would mean potential increases of 115% and 315%, which undoubtedly holds great appeal for investors and fills the market with expectations for SHIB's future.
How much money does it take to become a SHIB millionaire?
If SHIB rises 115% to reach the March high, or skyrockets 200% to hit key Fibonacci levels, how much money needs to be invested to earn $1 million?
Assuming its price rebounds from the white trend line support (current price $0.00002205), in an unleveraged spot market, to achieve the target: if the increase is 115%, then $464,799 is needed; if the increase is 200%, then $333,102 is needed.
If using 5x leverage in the futures market, the principal can be reduced to about $93,000; with 10x leverage, the principal can be pressed down to about $34,000.
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