According to ChainCatcher news and reports from Jinshi, numerous market indicators suggest that Trump's new term will face the highest historical valuations in the US stock market. Data shows that the proportion of US household stock allocation has increased from 48.3% at the beginning of 2024 to 51.8%. This indicator has the most significant four-year return forecasting ability since 1952, and current data indicate that the actual annualized return rate of the US stock market for 2025-2029 may be -1.5%.
Despite the household stock allocation reaching a historic high at the 2020 inauguration, the S&P 500 index still achieved an inflation-adjusted annual return of 9.3% (above the average level of 7.2% since 1952), but the current market situation has changed significantly. Multiple valuation indicators are now at high levels above 90% relative to historical distribution positions since 1950, 1970, and 2000, with some even reaching extreme values of 100%, indicating that returns in the US stock market over the next four years may only keep pace with inflation. Trump will face significant challenges if he wants to maintain the tradition of using stock market performance as a measure of his achievements.