#圣诞行情分析
Years ago, I was very busy. Today, I took some time to share how to prevent risks with Bitcoin before the end of December. This is a direction I want to share with everyone, for personal reference only.
First, we need to focus on the three nodes in Figure 1: 1, 2, and 3. By doing so, we can determine the direction in which the market will expand. Currently, the four-hour level has completed an ABC wave pattern, starting a rebound phase after a serious overselling. Yesterday's volume breakthrough has not yet surpassed node 2, so there is still a possibility of a downward break below node 1, which would indicate a weak rebound.
If node 2 is broken first, then this rebound will be relatively strong. It will continue to break through a certain high point and then retest, as long as the retest does not break node 1. This wave of daily-level corrections will officially end and will likely break the historical high. If a new low occurs, a conservative prediction would be a downward consolidation below 90k.
Regarding Bitcoin's market share, it has also been mentioned before. The previous chart indicated that if the rebound fails to break 60 and falls back to the 57 range, it will continue to exhibit this downward oscillation. The appearance of lower lows indicates that we are getting closer to the time for a recovery in altcoins.
The four-hour level also has a potential bat pattern, so the short-term bullish target has not yet ended, unless node 1 is broken.
As for the extremely low point I shared before in December, I will also view it as a wave and will reduce positions at a certain high to maintain cash flow to respond to extreme market conditions.
Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas
