Bitcoin initiated a rapid rise last night, breaking through several resistance levels, peaking around $99,480 at around 2 AM today, suggesting that bulls seem to regain upward momentum.
Does the negative premium of Bitcoin on Coinbase indicate a rebound?
This week, Western countries will celebrate the most important holiday of the year, Christmas (December 25), which has raised concerns among investors about whether Bitcoin will continue to decline due to a lack of upward momentum.
However, regarding this background, CryptoQuant analyst MAC_D reminded investors yesterday (24th) that Bitcoin has already shown a negative premium of -0.221% on the US-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, indicating that the current purchase demand from US investors has slightly eased.
However, he pointed out from historical data that this phenomenon will be brief during a bull market and is usually a buying opportunity.
The negative premium of Bitcoin on Coinbase reached -0.221%, marking the fifth time it has reached this level since May last year. The decline of this indicator suggests that the buying pressure from US investors has lessened compared to investors on Binance.
However, historically, this phenomenon is likely to be temporary and may attract new buyers, which we can view as an opportunity.
Although it is not yet certain whether this pullback has bottomed out, if the bull market is still ongoing, then a bottom can form quickly, leading to a rebound.
From the chart below, although there were two instances of price declines after the negative premium exceeded 0.2% since last May, overall, a rebound indeed followed shortly after, making it a potentially long-term indicator worth monitoring for spot traders.
QCP Capital: Altcoins may experience a rebound
Additionally, QCP Capital recently analyzed on its official Telegram channel that approximately $20 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire on Friday, possibly leading to a new round of market volatility.
If Bitcoin rebounds again above $100,000, volatility may stabilize; but if Bitcoin continues to struggle below $100,000, it may trigger a rebound in altcoins.
A similar situation occurred a month ago when the Ethereum/Bitcoin exchange rate was rebounding from a support level of 0.032, driving movements in altcoins.
We are closely monitoring whether Bitcoin will continue to probe lower from the current level to confirm the rotation direction of market funds and trends of other cryptocurrencies.