Bitcoin delivers a 'gift' on Christmas Eve.
Last night (24th), Bitcoin delivered a surprise on Christmas Eve, starting a rapid rise around 20:45, breaking through multiple resistance levels consecutively, reaching a peak of $99,480 at midnight. It slightly retreated at the time of writing, currently reported at $98,063, with a rise of about 5% in the last 24 hours.
Ethereum broke through $3,500, SOL stood above $200, and most mainstream altcoins rebounded under the influence of Bitcoin.
Do you remember the Christmas market hinted at by Xiaomiao Weibo? Xiaomiao was bullish at that time!
Is the market sentiment improving?
Let's look at two indicators:
Does the negative premium indicate a rebound? Bitcoin welcomes potential buying opportunities.
As Christmas approaches, some investors worry that Bitcoin's lack of upward momentum may continue to decline. However, the current negative premium of -0.221% for Bitcoin on Coinbase reflects a weakening buying demand from American investors, but this phenomenon is usually short-lived in a bull market and may present buying opportunities.
This is the fifth occurrence of a similar negative premium on Coinbase since May last year. Historically, after the negative premium exceeds -0.2%, although the price may further adjust in the short term, the overall trend tends to rebound quickly, attracting more new buyers to enter the market.
It is currently uncertain whether Bitcoin has bottomed out, but if the bull market continues, this negative premium may indicate that the bottom is near and signal a rebound. For spot traders, this could be an important indicator worth long-term attention.
The Fed may cut rates by more than 50 basis points next year.
More and more analysts believe that the Fed's rate cut next year may exceed expectations. A recent report from investment institution BCA Research pointed out that the actual rate cut by the Fed next year may exceed the 50 basis points estimated at this month's FOMC meeting.
The report mentions that the U.S. Department of Commerce's latest November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index was below market expectations. The core PCE, as the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, may see the annual inflation rate drop to 2.5% by March next year if the current trend persists over the next three months; if calculated with a six-month average, this goal could even be achieved in February. This indicates that inflation may decline earlier and more significantly than the Fed predicts.
The U.S. unemployment rate has risen from a cyclical low of 3.4% to 4.2%, and may rise further in the future. This raises doubts about the Fed's target of keeping the year-end unemployment rate at 4.3%. Against the backdrop of a slowing job market, the Fed may be forced to increase the rate of cuts.
In addition, Trump is about to take office, which may lead to new tariff policies that he will promote after taking office. This could trigger a short-term inflation rebound while putting pressure on manufacturing, further pushing the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts in the second half of next year.
This Friday, options for Bitcoin and Ethereum worth about $20 billion will expire, and the market may welcome a new round of volatility.
If Bitcoin rebounds above $100,000, volatility may remain stable; but if it continues to linger below $100,000, altcoins may start a recovery rally.
A similar situation occurred a month ago when the Ethereum/Bitcoin exchange rate rebounded from the support level of 0.032, driving altcoins up. Currently, we need to closely observe Bitcoin's trend to determine the direction of market fund rotation and the trends of other currencies.
Today's article ends here. Currently in a bull market, with winds and clouds stirring, we share passwords every day. If you're unsure about what to do in a bull market, feel free to follow along for spot market passwords and layout strategies, which can be shared free of charge.