Original Source: Delphi Digital
Original text organized by: Stacy Muur, crypto researcher
Original text translated by: 深潮 TechFlow
Introduction
As the year-end approaches, various studies and predictions are pouring in. @Delphi_Digital recently released the (2025 Market Outlook), delving into an analysis of the current market situation and future trends, covering a series of topics including Bitcoin price trends, major trends, and risk factors.
Given the length of the full text, reading it in its entirety would take a considerable amount of time. 深潮 TechFlow has compiled an article summarizing Stacy Muur's core viewpoints from the (2025 Market Outlook).
This article divides the Delphi Digital report into three main sections: the rise of Bitcoin, the mirage of altcoin season, and trends for future development. Currently, Bitcoin's market value has reached approximately $2 trillion, while altcoins have performed poorly. Looking ahead, the growth of stablecoins may bring hope for a market recovery. At the end of the article, Stacy Muur also expresses her unique views on the crypto market in 2025, suggesting that the crypto market is evolving from the 'Wild West' into a more regulated alternative stock market. Web3 native users are willing to take high risks and engage in speculative trading, while newcomers will adopt sound risk management and focus on long-term value, leading to some narratives potentially being marginalized.
The Rise of Bitcoin
Once upon a time, a Bitcoin price of $100,000 was considered a fantasy.
And now, this perspective has undergone a dramatic change. Bitcoin's current market value is around $2 trillion—remarkable. If Bitcoin were considered a publicly traded company, it would become the sixth most valuable company in the world.
Although Bitcoin has attracted widespread attention, its growth potential remains enormous.
· BTC's market value only accounts for 11% of the total market value of MAG7 (Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Google's parent company Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla).
· It accounts for less than 3% of the total market value of the US stock market, and about 1.5% of the total market value of the global stock market.
· Its market value is only 5% of the total public debt in the US, and less than 0.7% of the total global (public + private) debt.
· The total amount of funds in US money market funds is three times that of Bitcoin's market value.
· Bitcoin's market value is only about 15% of the total global foreign exchange reserve assets. If central banks globally invest 5% of their gold reserves into Bitcoin, this would bring more than $150 billion in purchasing power to Bitcoin—three times the net inflow of IBIT this year.
· The current global household net worth has reached a historical high of over $160 trillion, which is $40 trillion more than the pre-pandemic peak. This growth is primarily driven by rising home prices and a booming stock market. In comparison, this figure is 80 times the current market value of Bitcoin.
In a world where the Federal Reserve and other central banks push for a 5-7% annual depreciation of currency, investors need to pursue a 10-15% annual return to offset future loss of purchasing power.
You need to know:
· If currency depreciates by 5% annually, its real value will halve in 14 years.
· If the depreciation rate is 7%, this process will shorten to 10 years.
This is precisely why Bitcoin and other high-growth industries are receiving much attention.
The Mirage of Altcoin Season
Although Bitcoin has set one historical high after another this year, 2024 is not friendly to most altcoins.
· $ETH failed to break through historical highs.
· $SOL, although achieving new highs, has only gained a few dollars over its previous peak, making its performance seem insignificant compared to its market value and network activity growth.
· $ARB performed strongly at the beginning of the year, but its performance gradually declined as the year-end approached.
There are many similar examples. Just look at the performance data of 90% of the altcoins in your portfolio.
Why is this happening?
Firstly, Bitcoin's dominance is the key factor. BTC has performed exceptionally well this year, driven by ETF inflows and Trump-related factors, with its price rising over 130% year-to-date, reaching the highest level of dominance in three years.
Secondly, there is the phenomenon of market differentiation.
This year's market differentiation is a new feature of the crypto market. In previous cycles, asset prices typically fluctuated in sync. When BTC rose by 1%, ETH usually rose by 2%, and altcoins rose by 3%, creating a predictable pattern. However, this cycle is vastly different.
Although a few assets have performed exceptionally well, more assets are in a state of loss. Bitcoin's rise has not led to a comprehensive rise in the prices of other assets, and the much-anticipated 'altcoin season' has not materialized as expected.
Finally, Meme coins and AI agents also play important roles.
The crypto market constantly oscillates between the narratives of 'this is a Ponzi scheme' and 'this technology will change the world.' In 2024, the narrative of 'fraud' has dominated.
In the collective imagination of the public, the crypto market constantly oscillates between the 'global financial system unified by future technology' and 'the biggest scam in human history,' occurring every two years.
Why does this narrative seem to alternate between two extremes and repeat every two years?
The super cycle of Meme coins and market sentiment
The super cycle of Meme coins further reinforces the perception that the crypto market is a 'Ponzi scheme.' Many people begin to question whether the fundamentals of the crypto market really matter, even viewing it as a 'casino on Mars.' These concerns are not without reason.
In this context, I would like to add a note.
When memes are referred to as the best-performing assets of the year, people usually focus only on those that have already established significant market value and successfully built communities—'mainstream memes' (such as DOGE, SHIB). However, 95% of memes quickly lose value after launch, which is often overlooked. Yet even so, people are still 'willing to believe.'
This belief has led many funds that previously invested in altcoins to shift towards Memecoins—few profit, but most do not succeed. As a result, capital inflows are primarily concentrated between Bitcoin (institutional funds) and Memecoins (high-risk investments), while most altcoins are overlooked.
Delphi believes that 2025 will be a year of technological-driven market transformation, with technologies that will 'change the world.'
However, I am not so optimistic about this. In 2024, a large number of KOLs (key opinion leaders) focusing on Memecoins emerged. When I tried to create a folder on Telegram containing channels with 'real value' (you can find it here), I found that almost all channels were discussing 'ape calls' (i.e., high-risk short-term investment advice). This is the essence of the attention economy, and these narratives profoundly influence market trends.
What are the upcoming trends?
The growth of stablecoins and credit expansion
A major challenge currently facing the market is token oversupply. Driven by private investments and public token issuances, a large number of new assets have flooded in. For instance, in 2024 alone, over 4 million tokens were launched on Solana's pump.fun platform. However, in contrast, the total market cap of the crypto market has only tripled compared to the last cycle, whereas it grew 18 times and 10 times in 2017 and 2020 respectively.
Two key factors missing from the market—growth of stablecoins and credit expansion—are reappearing. With decreasing interest rates and an improving regulatory environment, speculative behavior is expected to reactivate, alleviating the current market imbalance. The central role of stablecoins in trading and collateralization will be crucial for market recovery.
Institutional capital inflow
Until last year, institutional investors remained cautious about crypto assets due to regulatory uncertainties. However, with the SEC reluctantly approving a spot Bitcoin ETF, this situation began to change, paving the way for future institutional capital inflows.
Institutional investors typically tend to choose familiar investment areas. Although a few institutions may venture into Memecoins, they are more likely to focus on assets with more fundamental support, such as ETH/SOL, DeFi, or infrastructure.
Delphi predicts that the market may see a 'full rebound' similar to previous cycles in the coming year. Unlike before, the market will pay more attention to fundamentally driven projects. For instance, OG DeFi projects (original decentralized finance projects) may become a focus due to their proven track record in withstanding market tests; infrastructure assets (such as L1 protocols) may also regain prominence. Additionally, RWA (real-world assets) or emerging fields (such as artificial intelligence and DePIN) may also become hotspots.
Of course, not all tokens can achieve triple-digit gains as in the past, but the presence of memes will become part of the market. This could signify a new starting point, a broad crypto rebound driven by the overall rise of the market.
Note: Most institutional traders typically rely on options hedging strategies. Therefore, if a 'full rebound' occurs, the assets most likely to attract institutional interest will be those with options trading—currently primarily traded on Deribit and potentially Aevo platforms.
Arguments about Solana
@Solana demonstrated the strong resilience of the blockchain ecosystem. After experiencing a 96% drop in market value due to the FTX collapse, Solana welcomed a remarkable recovery in 2024.
Here are its key performance highlights:
· Developer momentum: By hosting hackathons and distributing airdrops (such as the Jito airdrop), Solana has successfully reignited interest among developers and users. This increase in participation not only drives innovation but also creates a positive cycle of technical development and user adoption.
· Market leadership: In the 2024 crypto market trend, Solana is leading in both the Meme and AI application fields. Notably, its Real Economic Value (REV, a comprehensive measure of transaction fees and MEV) exceeds Ethereum by more than 200%, demonstrating strong market vitality.
· Future Outlook: Solana is expected to challenge Ethereum's dominance in scalability and user experience. Compared to decentralized Layer-2 solutions, Solana offers a seamless user experience and a highly centralized ecosystem, giving it a significant competitive advantage.
Stacy's Final Thoughts
The current market situation may remind one of 2017-2018, when Bitcoin reached a historical high of $20,000 on New Year's Eve, followed by a downturn in early 2018. However, I think it is inappropriate to compare the 2018 crypto market with that of 2025. The two are in completely different market environments—the once chaotic 'Wild West' is rapidly evolving into a more regulated alternative stock market.
We need to recognize that the scope of the crypto market goes far beyond the discussions on Crypto Twitter (CT) and the X platform. For those who are not active on these platforms, their understanding and perception of the market may be completely different.
Looking towards 2025, I believe the crypto market will diverge into two main directions:
· Web3 native users: This group is deeply involved in the crypto market, familiar with its unique operating methods, and willing to take high risks, engaging in speculative trades such as Memes, AI agents, and presale projects. These behaviors evoke memories of the early 'Wild West' era of the crypto market.
· Ordinary investors: including institutional and retail investors, who typically adopt more robust risk management approaches, tending towards fundamental-based investment strategies. They view the crypto market as an alternative to the traditional stock market, focusing on long-term value rather than short-term speculation.
So, which areas may be marginalized? Early DeFi projects, RWA (real-world assets), and DePIN (decentralized IoT) protocols that fail to occupy a leading position in their fields or the blockchain ecosystem may gradually lose market attention. This is just my opinion.
PS: This article summarizes the core viewpoints from @Delphi_Digital's 2025 market outlook. If you want to comprehensively understand Delphi's detailed predictions for 2025 and beyond, I highly recommend reading the original research report.
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