Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010)
In the just-past week, Bitcoin experienced a major pullback, dropping about 15% from the historical high of $108,300 to around $92,000. Currently, as market sentiment gradually stabilizes, the Bitcoin price has recovered to around $96,000, entering a phase of fluctuation.
The continuous decline in recent days has severely drained altcoins, with many tokens' prices even falling to levels before October, erasing the 'Trump effect' rise that followed Trump's election as US president. Nevertheless, with the Christmas holiday approaching, many believe the 'Christmas crash' will further exacerbate the market's downward trend.
However, with 2025 approaching, a series of favorable factors such as Trump's inauguration and the Bitcoin strategic reserve plan are poised to create a new 'dawn moment' for the cryptocurrency industry.
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the views of industry insiders, institutional buying trends, and some on-chain activities in this article, providing readers with a more comprehensive perspective on the market.
Overview of industry perspectives: most are bullish, few are bearish.
From the perspective of industry mainstream figures, most believe that the current pullback in BTC is only temporary, mainly due to the rapid breakthrough of the new high around $108,000, while altcoin holders are in a hurry to sell, triggering market fluctuations downward. As 2024 is about to end and 2025 is approaching, BTC is expected to continue to reach new highs.
CZ: Waiting for new headlines, Bitcoin continues to set new highs.
Binance co-founder CZ recently stated that waiting for new headlines, Bitcoin continues to set new highs. Previously, CZ tweeted four years ago that BTC 'crashed' from $101,000 to $85,000 while waiting for news headlines.
Cathie Wood: BTC will become scarcer than gold due to institutional demand.
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that due to institutional demand, Bitcoin 'is becoming scarcer than gold,' and she previously predicted that by 2030, the price of BTC would exceed $1 million.
Bitwise CIO: BTC has three unstoppable sources of demand: ETF, MicroStrategy, and others.
On December 19, Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed out three 'unstoppable' sources of demand for Bitcoin: ETF, MicroStrategy, and the government itself potentially becoming Bitcoin buyers. He added, 'It ultimately comes down to supply and demand. Too much demand, not enough supply, so I believe the price in 2025 will be higher.'
Trader Peter Brandt: BTC may continue to rise, with a near-term price target of $125,000.
After BTC recently fell below the $91,000 mark, it rebounded strongly this weekend, currently slightly retreating to around $96,000. During this process, veteran trader Peter Brandt reiterated his bullish view on BTC and indicated that it may continue to rise in the future. In addition, other on-chain indicators also suggest a good momentum for BTC in the future. In a recent analysis, Brandt stated that BTC could reach $108,358 in the coming days.
Peter Brandt's candlestick analysis.
However, he also cited technical charts warning that BTC prices could pull back to $76,614 during the upward trend, adding that 'this is not a prediction', pointing out the risks present in the market. He indicated that these analyses reflect 'possibilities, not probabilities, and not certainties.' Additionally, his recently set BTC price target is $125,000.
Lark Davis: The current pullback is not the 'end of the bull market'; there is still plenty of fuel in the market.
Crypto KOL and industry analyst Lark Davis believes based on historical data that the current correction in the crypto market is not the 'end of the bull market'. He stated: 'In December 2020, after a 77% rise from October to November, BTC fell by 12%. Subsequently, it rose from $17,000 to $41,000 in the next 23 days (an increase of 136%). A similar situation is occurring now, as Bitcoin has fallen 13% after a significant rise in the fourth quarter. This does not mean this is the bottom; we may see another 10-15% correction. But Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market still have plenty of fuel.'
Analysts: The recent Bitcoin pullback is highly related to the sell-off by Coinbase since October 26.
The recent drop in BTC's price marks a sharp shift in market sentiment, which has quickly turned from extremely bullish to uncertain and cautious. As altcoins take a hit, Bitcoin's pullback raises concerns about the sustainability of the recent upward trend.
Top analyst Maartunn recently emphasized that this adjustment coincides with the most severe sell-off activity since October 26 (when BTC was trading at $66,000). The increase in selling pressure clearly indicates a shift in the market from a bullish sentiment to one filled with fear and hesitation. The combination of reduced buying activity and increased selling pressure suggests that the market is struggling to maintain upward momentum. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently testing the $92,000 mark to seek support.
Bitfinex: Bitcoin may reach $200,000 by mid-2025 and will maintain a mild correction trend.
Bitfinex analysts stated in a recent market report that due to strong institutional demand, the Bitcoin downturn in 2025 will be brief, with the best-case scenario predicting that the Bitcoin price will double by June 2025, with a minimum price estimated to 'reach $145,000 by mid-2025, and possibly rise to $200,000 under favorable conditions.'
Analysts say: 'We believe that any corrections in 2025 will remain mild due to institutional inflows.' They noted that while Bitcoin is expected to experience volatility in the first quarter of 2025, the 'broader trend' indicates that its price will continue to rise, thanks to ongoing inflows from the spot Bitcoin ETF and increasing global and institutional adoption rates.
CryptoQuant CEO: Currently, this is not a traditional altcoin season, but an independent market for individual tokens.
On December 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that Bitcoin's market share fell by 6% (with XRP contributing 3%), but it has begun to recover. Currently, only a few altcoins are attracting new liquidity, and the scale of capital rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins is limited.
He believes this is not a traditional altcoin season, but rather an independent market for individual performing tokens.
Trader Eugene: Altcoin investors are eager to sell spot, and the market may enter a longer period of consolidation.
Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio expressed his views on the altcoin market, stating: 'Altcoins (Alts) quickly fell back to these levels again within 48 hours after forming wick lows, indicating that investors are extremely anxious about holding spot assets and eager to sell. The market may enter a longer period of adjustment or quickly decline in a short time.'
Analysts: Seeing a significant pullback in a cryptocurrency bull market is 'very typical.'
Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a new historical high of over $108,000, and the recent decline in the crypto market has had a greater impact on altcoins such as Ethereum and Dogecoin. Last Thursday, a group of US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin ended a 15-day streak of inflows, recording an outflow of $680 million, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.
Data and analytics director Strahinja Savic at FRNT Financial stated that seeing such a significant pullback in a cryptocurrency bull market is 'very typical', while QCP Capital reported that the root cause of the sell-off is the market's 'excessive optimism' positioning.
Strong buying: BTC ETF continues to see inflows, with countries and enterprises both following suit.
From the perspective of basic buying in the market, it is still in the 'batting zone' of institutional trading, with funds from the US BTC ETF, El Salvador, US-listed companies, and Japanese-listed companies continuously purchasing BTC, and the holding cost is not significantly different from the BTC spot price. Institutions are relatively optimistic about BTC's future performance.
Bitcoin Cap Table: ETFs, governments, and MSTR currently hold 31% of all Bitcoin, doubling from last year.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju released an update on the Bitcoin holding pie chart, stating that ETFs, governments, and MSTR now hold 31% of all Bitcoin, up from 14% last year.
BTC holding pie chart information.
In the 50th week, the trading volume of the US spot Bitcoin ETF reached $26 billion, with inflows of $17.5 billion so far in Q4.
According to Trader T's monitoring, the net inflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in the 50th week was $463 million, with a trading volume of $26 billion; additionally:
So far in Q4, Bitcoin ETF inflows have reached $17.5 billion (the best quarter);
BlackRock IBIT inflows amount to $1.452 billion;
Other ETFs saw outflows of $989 million.
El Salvador has increased its BTC purchasing efforts, with a medium-term goal of adding 20,000 BTC.
On December 21, according to Bitcoin Magazine, El Salvador's president's senior Bitcoin advisor Max Keiser revealed: 'President Bukele has increased the daily Bitcoin purchasing intensity, with a medium-term goal of adding 20,000 BTC.' On December 22, El Salvador's wallet address increased its holdings by about 11 BTC (valued at $1.06 million) for its strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Previously, El Salvador reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to obtain a credit line of $1.4 billion, but there was a requirement to 'reduce Bitcoin risk'; IMF spokesperson Kozak stated when asked about Bitcoin's status as legal tender in El Salvador that the use of Bitcoin will be voluntary.
In the latest news, El Salvador's Bitcoin office director Stacy Herbert clarified that even after reaching an agreement, the country will continue to 'accelerate' Bitcoin purchases, which is part of its strategic Bitcoin reserve strategy. Herbert also explained that Bitcoin will remain the country's legal tender, and the government will continue to sponsor several cryptocurrency-focused educational programs. The Bitcoin office reported that the '1 BTC per day' purchase plan will continue.
In addition, the country has made additional purchases, increasing its holdings by 30 BTC in the past 7 days and 53 BTC in the past 30 days.
Australia's Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF holdings reached 272 BTC.
As of December 19, Australia's Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) holds 272 BTC, with AUM of approximately $44.345 million.
Australia's BTC ETF continues to increase its holdings.
Statistics: At least 10 companies are currently implementing or considering adopting MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy.
According to statistics, at least 10 companies are currently implementing or considering adopting MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, including:
Artificial Intelligence company Genius Group: currently holding 294 BTC;
Pika Solutions provider Worksport: the company's board approved an initial purchase of BTC and XRP worth $5 million;
Amazon: shareholders propose the company’s board evaluate the potential benefits of adding Bitcoin to its financial strategy;
MicroStrategy: currently holding 439,000 BTC;
MARA Holdings: currently holding 44,394 BTC;
Tesla: currently holding 9,720 BTC;
Coinbase: currently holding 9,480 BTC as part of its reserves;
Hut 8 Mining Corp: currently holding 10,096 BTC;
Block Inc.: currently holding 8,027 BTC;
OneMedNet: currently holding 34 BTC.
Among them, Bitcoin mining company MARA previously disclosed that it raised $1.925 billion through convertible notes in November and December and bought 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529, valued at approximately $1.53 billion, and repurchased approximately $263 million of its existing convertible notes maturing in 2026, and plans to use the remaining proceeds to purchase more Bitcoin. Hut 8 surpassed Tesla on December 19, becoming the fourth publicly listed company holding over 10,000 BTC.
Japanese-listed company Metaplanet increased its holdings by 619.7 BTC.
On December 23, Japanese-listed company Metaplanet announced an increase of 619.7 BTC, spending a total of 9.5 billion yen (approximately $60.68 million), with an average purchase price of about $97,800; its total BTC holdings increased to 1,761.98 BTC.
Increased holding statement.
Glassnode: The trend of the bull market has seen a decrease in the severity of Bitcoin pullbacks, with most corrections around 25%.
Glassnode officials previously stated, 'Interestingly, as the market grows, the severity of Bitcoin pullbacks in bull market uptrends has decreased. The deepest pullback in this cycle was -32% (on August 5, 2024), while most pullbacks were around 25% from previous peaks, reflecting the demand for spot ETFs and the growing institutional interest.'
Glassnode tends to see a decreasing degree of pullback.
On-chain activities: Increase in wallet addresses, awakening of dormant addresses, and exit of long-term holders.
On-chain activities show a polarized phenomenon: on one hand, as the time scale lengthens, the number of addresses holding mainstream cryptocurrencies has increased to varying degrees, starting at least 25%; on the other hand, ancient BTC addresses that have been dormant for more than 10 years are also waking up, and many long-term BTC holders have gradually exited the market.
In the past two years, the number of non-empty wallets for BTC and ETH has increased by 27% and 47%, respectively.
Santiment reported that the number of cryptocurrency holders has significantly increased in the past two years. Here are the numbers of non-empty wallets for the top four cryptocurrencies ranked by market capitalization:
BTC: 54.7 million (+27%);
ETH: 13.49 million (+47%);
USDT: 6.57 million (+66%);
XRP: 5.75 million (+28%).
Analysts: As of December 20, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges this month.
On December 20, crypto analyst AIi stated that as of now, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in December, and this trend does not seem to be slowing down.
BTC continues to flow out of exchanges.
Since September, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold 1 million BTC.
In mid-December, long-term Bitcoin holders had already sold a large amount of Bitcoin, reducing their total holdings from about 14.2 million in mid-September to about 13.2 million. The current trading price of Bitcoin is 13% lower than the historical high of around $108,000, which is the highest level since Trump won the US election in early November.
According to Glassnode data, on December 19, long-term Bitcoin holders sold nearly 70,000 BTC, marking the fourth-largest single-day sell-off this year.
Recently, multiple addresses worth over $20 million have been activated after years of dormancy.
Bitcoin fell below $96,000 on December 22, a drop of about 11% since breaking through $108,000 on December 17, 2024.
Meanwhile, at a block height of 875,560 in the Bitcoin network, a wallet that had been dormant since July 25, 2015, was activated and transferred 44.99 BTC, marking its first activity since creation. The same user actually transferred a total of 59.99 BTC, moving funds from three old addresses (P2PKH) to two Pay-to-Witness-Public-Key-Hash (P2WPKH) wallets. Of these, 44.99 BTC came from 2015, when the BTC trading price was $290. Then, 43 blocks later, several wallets left over from 2017 became active, transferring a small amount of Bitcoin (0.00000547 BTC) at block 875,603.
This model of sending Bitcoin fragments cleverly conceals larger-scale transfers. Once the satoshis are settled, a newly minted P2WPKH wallet will receive 99.999 BTC, worth $9.7 million at current prices. On Saturday, a wallet that had been dormant for 12 years was activated, transferring 104.99 BTC when BTC was only worth $11, totaling $1,200. Now, these BTC are worth over $10 million. This transfer also migrated from the old P2PKH address to the new P2WPKH address.
BTC continues to flow out of exchanges: Coinbase is accelerating its outflow.
Coinglass data shows that the current Coinbase Pro Bitcoin wallet balance is 733,076.34 BTC, ranking first among CEX; inflows of 16.69 BTC in the past 24 hours, outflows of 14,661.50 BTC in the past 7 days, and outflows of 70,185.16 BTC in the past 30 days.
Binance's Bitcoin wallet balance is 571,802.93 BTC, with inflows of 1,458.46 BTC in the past 24 hours, inflows of 4,199.11 BTC in the past 7 days, and outflows of 10,412.79 BTC in the past 30 days.
