The drop on Friday + V reversal basically accounted for the weekend's market. It can be seen that with the double festival approaching, the liquidity in the cryptocurrency market has clearly weakened, so this week's market should primarily be a fluctuation, and the profit-making effect will be much less than before.
On December 20, Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 277 million, and Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of 75.1 million. Even the 1BIT from Beichai De is flowing out, which is definitely a key turning point. A very crucial turning point. Following the Ethereum Foundation, the second escape top master has appeared, Sun Yuchen returned 39,999 ETH (143 million USD) from Lido Finance and ether.f, then deposited it all into HTX.
Since November 10, as the ETH price started to rise, he has deposited 108,919 ETH (400 million USD) into HTX, with an average price of 3,674 GBP. Currently, he still has 42,904 ETH (139 million USD) being unstaked from Lido and may soon be deposited into HTX.
Sun Zhi was also the great figure who escaped the top of ETH back in the day, with more than 4500. Although he still holds a lot, this wave should clearly indicate some signs of a top. This Friday is the annual options expiration day, also the expiration day for contracts and other derivatives. With the upcoming Christmas liquidity being tight, this week should primarily see a downward fluctuation. Currently, the biggest pain point for annual options is 84000. Based on the current data, if this Friday is below 90,000 USD.
Looking at the call options, the buyer is winning. Of course, options can no longer influence the price changes of Bitcoin. Currently, it seems that it may only suppress its upward momentum. The buyers of CALL should not make too much profit. Market interpretation from last week was basically correct, which is that the bottom is not the lowest. Reviewing last week's views, 94000 was the bottom, and it rebounded to 99000. Currently, this wave is doing very well, and last week it was also mentioned that this week might continue to see new lows, the reason being that the ETF may continue to see outflows.
But Bitcoin should not fall too much either. This morning, the 4H level was already pointing to a W bottom, but it doesn't seem very valid now and needs observation. Also, we need to see if there will be an ETF sell-off after the US stock market opens tonight. The second coin is really weak, and the exchange rate is not rebounding, it has stabilized. Moreover, last Friday's pin should have triggered on-chain liquidation, which is difficult. You may not believe Sun's calls, but Sun's escape from the top has something behind it! SOL's lowest was 176, and I think buying below 185 is worth holding, SOL's daily line is already oversold.
The cost-effectiveness at this position is very good, any further drop will just take it off the screen, you understand? In terms of altcoins: over the weekend, MEME rebounded slightly, but I feel that MEME is still not ready. If you want to buy MEME, you have to be flexible. For example, if PNUT’s high point is 2.2, then I think 0.22 might be quite a reasonable bottoming point, this kind of bottoming strategy might be able to catch the bottom.
This drop still highlights several strong currencies, specifically those supported by Trump's team. Except for LINK, which is slightly weaker, the others are still relatively strong. Speaking of ZEN, I feel that ZEN's growth space is not very large, just my personal subjective opinion, that's it. It is different from XRP, as it lacks the kind of positive logic and expectations for support, so it cannot be compared directly.
