Is this round of the bull market over? No, the bull is still here!
Teacher Zhu Talks about Blockchain
Recently, the price of coins has fallen quite dramatically; yesterday it dropped to as low as 9.3, and other altcoins also fell by 20%-30%. Everyone is quite anxious, and some even say the bull market is over. But I can clearly tell everyone that the bull market is still ongoing!
Why do I say this? The reason is clear to everyone, mainly due to the hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve. However, the situation should improve once Trump is back in office. Additionally, Christmas is approaching in the West, and institutional funds will definitely choose to withdraw part of their investments to avoid risks. After all, the crypto market is traded 24/7, and no one wants to be caught off guard while on vacation.
Let's first take a look at the historical performance of coin prices before and after Christmas in previous years. I checked Bitcoin's price and found that from 2022 to 2023 it was a bear market, so the price hardly changed. In 2021, it was the end of the bull market, and the price fell. In 2020, it was the prelude to the bull market of 2021, with rising prices. In 2018-2019, prices fell, but in 2017 there was a big bull market, so prices rose after Christmas.
According to this pattern, this round of the bull market should continue to rise after Christmas, as it is quite similar to the situation at the beginning of 2023.
So why do we say it hasn't turned bearish yet? Let's take a look at a few indicators:
Market capitalization proportion of Bitcoin and Ethereum
The proportion of Bitcoin in the total market capitalization, which usually reflects market sentiment. If Bitcoin's proportion is still relatively high, it indicates that the overall market sentiment is still good, and the bull market may still be ongoing. The same goes for Ethereum; if its proportion rises, it indicates that the demand for applications such as smart contracts and DeFi is still increasing.
Currently, Bitcoin's market capitalization proportion is 57.4%, and Ethereum's is 12.1%. During the great bull market of 2021, Bitcoin's proportion dropped to a minimum of 40%, while Ethereum's proportion rose to 18.5%. Therefore, from Bitcoin's proportion, it is evident that momentum is gathering, and it cannot simply turn bearish.
Trading Volume
Trading volume is an important indicator of market heat. Continuous growth in trading volume indicates positive market sentiment and active investors. The current trading volume is indeed on the rise, about twice that of 2021, but has not yet reached the peak of 2021. It's worth noting that many institutions have entered the market now, so this wave of trading volume will definitely be higher than the previous one, at least 600 to 800 billion.
Altcoin Season Indicator
The altcoin season indicator mainly reflects the proportion of altcoins. Many people say that the altcoin season is over, but I have always emphasized that the altcoin season will definitely return. Look at the frenzy of altcoins at the end of November; although it was short-lived, as long as the bull market is not over, we can firmly believe that there will be another altcoin season ahead.
Although this wave of altcoins has risen sharply, the altcoin season indicator is only around 50. In 2021, the altcoin season indicator peaked at over 90. Therefore, even if this altcoin season is not as good as the last one, it should be at least 70-80; it cannot end at 50. There will definitely be a more crazy altcoin season ahead!
Rainbow Chart
We have looked at this indicator before; it is currently at the lower edge of the rainbow chart pipeline and is still in an upward trend. In 2021, the rainbow chart at least reached the fourth grid position. I roughly estimated that the prediction from the rainbow chart is that this wave of the bull market will start at a price of at least $200,000 for Bitcoin!
Active Address Count
The number of active addresses can reflect how many users are actively trading or holding cryptocurrency assets. If the number of active addresses continues to increase, it indicates that the market is attracting more new users, which is often a signal for a bull market. Look at the total address data for Bitcoin; in the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, the number of new addresses grew rapidly. Currently, there hasn't been such a rapid change, so the bull market is definitely still ongoing.
On-chain Indicators
The network hash rate, especially Bitcoin's hash rate, reflects miners' confidence. If the hash rate continues to grow, it means miners are still optimistic about the network's security and long-term value. The current hash rate is around 830, showing no downward trend.
Total Value Locked (TVL) can also reflect the market's demand for decentralized finance. If the TVL continues to grow, it indicates that the bull market is still ongoing. The current TVL has not yet reached the heights of 2021, but this wave will definitely be 2-3 times higher than the last one due to so many chains and applications, as well as various Layer 2 solutions.
In summary, it is absolutely impossible that we have already reached the top of the bull market and turned bearish. At most, it can be considered the mid-point of the bull market. Moreover, according to the predictions from the rainbow chart, this wave of the bull market has a starting point of at least $200,000.
Finally, I would like to share an annual summary that I saw. There is a chart that I find quite informative, showing the performance of the TOP 50 cryptocurrencies over the past year. Among them, the ones that rose the most are HBAR, BGB, XML, XRP, which we all know. But the key is to look at the last few that have fallen, like FET and TAO, both leaders in AI. They rose too sharply at the beginning of the year, so now they are actually declining. In fact, their cost-effectiveness is quite high. There’s also STX, which is a leader in Bitcoin Layer 2, as well as NEAR, TON, OP, APT, which everyone should pay attention to.
In the upcoming layout direction, I will guide everyone to target the lucrative opportunities in altcoins, especially those with high potential projects. A projected return of over 10 times is quite feasible. If you want to make big money in the bull market, like and comment, and I'll take you through the entire bull market!
