O actual problema da dívida nos Estados Unidos está a evoluir gradualmente para um desafio económico de preocupação global. Em 2024, a dívida federal total dos Estados Unidos ultrapassou 35 biliões de dólares, representando 125% do produto interno bruto (PIB). Estes elevados níveis de dívida suscitaram um debate generalizado sobre a sua sustentabilidade a longo prazo.
Ao mesmo tempo, as criptomoedas são vistas por alguns como ferramentas inovadoras que poderiam aliviar as pressões da dívida, especialmente no contexto da proposta do Bitcoin como um ativo de reserva. Então, as criptomoedas podem desempenhar um papel fundamental neste dilema?
In this regard, former U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan published a compelling article discussing how cryptocurrencies, particularly stablecoins, could help the U.S. tackle its massive debt problem in the future. Ryan believes that the U.S. national debt has threatened the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. In this context, the rise of stablecoins could provide new buyers for U.S. debt, thereby delaying the arrival of a crisis.
Latest data shows that dollar-based stablecoins like USDT (Tether) and USDC (USD Coin) hold an important position in U.S. Treasury bonds, currently holding over $95 billion in U.S. debt. This means that as stablecoins continue to grow, they not only provide traders with a fiat currency entry point into the crypto market but may also help absorb U.S. debt through sustained demand for Treasury bonds.
China was once a major buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds, but its holdings have decreased from $1.27 trillion in 2013 to less than $1 trillion in April 2022. Experts analyze that changes in geopolitical situations and shifts in trade policies are the main reasons for China's reduction in U.S. debt holdings. In this scenario, stablecoin issuers as purchasers of Treasury bonds can reduce reliance on traditional buyers, thereby alleviating concerns arising from geopolitical instability.
For instance, according to a recent report by Tether, the company holds $84.548 billion in U.S. government debt, while Circle's report shows it holds $11.127 billion in Treasury bonds. This indicates that stablecoin issuers are gradually becoming significant buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Moreover, Ryan pointed out that the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency is facing risks. As foreign interest in U.S. Treasury bonds gradually wanes, the borrowing costs for the U.S. may rise, impacting overall economic stability. The rise of stablecoins may help alleviate this crisis to some extent, especially before more measures are expected to address the debt issue.
However, the acceptance of stablecoins and their integration into the traditional financial system is not without controversy. Opponents argue that this could lead to the U.S. losing control over global capital flows. Stablecoins are issued on permissionless public blockchains, reflecting American values of freedom and openness, contrasting sharply with China's digital financial infrastructure.
According to a report from the Hoover Institution (Digital Currency: The Crossroads of America, China, and the World), the U.S. should actively lead the future of digital currencies. Although the report does not advocate for the creation of a digital dollar, it emphasizes the urgency of establishing regulatory standards to address China's leading position in the digital currency space. The transformation of America's digital economy will rely more on stablecoins, and drafting necessary regulations and implementing infrastructure will be key to ensuring success.
The report points out that coordinating with G7 countries and other democratic partners to establish principles and standards for a global digital financial system is an important step in restoring U.S. economic influence. Through such collaboration, stablecoins have the potential to help the U.S. regain superpower status.
In addition to stablecoins, Ryan also mentioned the potential role of Bitcoin. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis formally proposed a Bitcoin bill in July 2024, suggesting the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve holding 1 million Bitcoins as a store of value to strengthen the U.S. balance sheet. Lummis claimed that if profits are made from the sale of Bitcoin, the U.S. could achieve a debt-free status within 20 years.
However, data analysis shows that achieving this goal is not optimistic. Currently, the U.S. national debt is $35.46 trillion, while Bitcoin's market capitalization is only $1.739 trillion. To repay the national debt with 1 million Bitcoins, each Bitcoin must reach a value of $35.46 million. Considering the total limit of Bitcoins is 21 million, the growth rate of market capitalization is unlikely to keep pace with the total value of world assets like gold, silver, and stocks.
Nevertheless, asset management company VanEck, which has issued multiple cryptocurrency ETFs, is optimistic that if Bitcoin grows at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% per year, it will reach $42.3 million by 2049. At the same time, U.S. Treasury bonds may grow at a 5% annual rate, rising from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion. If a national reserve of 1 million Bitcoins can be achieved, these assets will account for 35% of national debt by 2049, potentially offsetting liabilities of up to $42 trillion.
Additionally, Michael Saylor, the founder of Micro Strategy, the leading holder of Bitcoin among publicly traded companies in the U.S., stated that he has met with many people in the incoming government, and Trump is serious about establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. If he knows where the money is flowing, he should boldly invest for the future.
At the same time, the price of Bitcoin has seen a significant increase in recent weeks, reaching a historical high of $108,353 on December 17, 2024, which has stimulated market confidence in its further rise. Analysts believe that Bitcoin could even break $150,000 during Trump's presidency. For investors, paying attention to policy changes and market dynamics will be key to navigating future fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. If Bitcoin's potential can be fully unleashed, the $150,000 target may just be the starting point of its long-term value.
Currently, there is no clear indication that the U.S. will incorporate cryptocurrencies into its short-term debt crisis solutions, but the very discussion reflects the rapidly increasing importance of cryptocurrencies in the global economy. If the U.S. government can establish a clear policy framework that combines the advantages of cryptocurrencies with the traditional financial system, it may not only help alleviate debt pressure but also lead the future development of the global digital economy.
In summary, against the backdrop of an increasingly severe U.S. debt crisis, cryptocurrencies could provide a breakthrough solution. However, this requires a joint effort from policy, market, and technology. In the coming years, whether Bitcoin can become a remedy for the U.S. debt problem, its role in the global economy will undoubtedly become more important.
