The market, project, coin, and other information, opinions, and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
Written by: 0xWeilan
As a psychological threshold, the barrier effect at 100,000 USD depends on the strength of the will of the holder group. This week's trends indicate that once the overall trends of capital and sentiment are established, breaking through the psychological barrier is only a matter of time.
After four consecutive weeks of gains, BTC fell and then rose this week, opening at 101,400 USD, subsequently dipping to close at 104,447.76 USD. After clearing out floating profits eager for realization and retesting the 5-week moving average, it gradually climbed up and ultimately surged above 104,000 USD on Sunday.
This week, the U.S. released CPI and PPI data that met expectations, slightly negative, but the well-adjusted cryptocurrency market seems to have entered a 'zero-risk' gradual upward phase under continuous capital inflow support.
Macroeconomic and financial data
This week, the U.S. reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year recorded 2.7% at the end of November, rising for the second consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, the largest increase since April.
After the CPI data was released, swap traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates before the end of 2025. They expect a total reduction of 87 basis points by then. This means that in addition to a 25 basis point cut next week, there will be about two more cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points. This level of reduction is one less than the four cuts proposed in the latest quarterly dot plot from September.
In the U.S. stock market, mixed performance was observed. The Nasdaq rose by 0.34%, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell by 1.82% and 0.64% respectively. Gold in London slightly increased by 0.16%.
This week, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points again, lowering the deposit rate from 3.25% to 3%, and hinted that rate cuts will continue.
In China, the Central Economic Work Conference stated, 'We must implement a more proactive and effective macro policy to stabilize the real estate and stock markets,' followed by the Central Financial Work Conference stating, 'We must implement a more proactive fiscal policy and increase the fiscal deficit ratio. We must implement moderately loose monetary policy and timely cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates.' This is the first time in 14 years that the Chinese government has reiterated 'moderately loose' monetary policy.
From the comprehensive outlook of various countries, in 2025, the U.S. is expected to face policy turbulence and may experience a rebound in inflation, with a slowdown in interest rate cuts; in Europe and China, economic growth may continue to decline, necessitating the adoption of loose monetary policies to stimulate sluggish economic growth.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
Although the Christmas holiday is approaching and market trading has become increasingly quiet, the cryptocurrency market still maintains relatively ample capital inflow. This week, the BTC Spot ETF saw inflows of $2.174 billion, with stablecoin channels bringing in $3.768 billion, totaling $5.941 billion, which is a decrease from last week but still at a high level.
Sell-off
This week, a total of 268,581 BTC was transferred to exchanges by both long and short positions, including 256,826 short positions and 11,755 long positions, marking the second largest selling week since November.
Surging buying power, especially the capital absorption from the BTC Spot ETF channel, has alleviated selling pressure. The centralized exchanges saw a decrease of 27,901 BTC in total inventory for the week.
According to eMerge Engine under EMC Labs, the short position floating profit has decreased from the previous high of 33% to 25%, which is a neutral level in this bull market.
Especially, the decisive long position sell-off in the cycle phase has been continuously decreasing, and the BTC price is expected to rise above 100,000 USD, gradually climbing upwards amidst fluctuations.
Cycle indicator
The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.875, indicating that the market is in an upward phase, showing vigorous growth.
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EMC Labs (Yong Reality Labs) was founded in April 2023 by cryptocurrency asset investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and investment in the Crypto secondary market, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as core competencies, dedicated to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, promoting blockchain and cryptocurrency assets for the benefit of humanity.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
