O atual sentimento do mercado é mais negativo ao longo do ano. Este sentimento, cheio de medo e incerteza, não só é plenamente divulgado nas redes sociais, como também reflete diretamente as previsões pessimistas dos investidores de retalho sobre as tendências dos preços a curto prazo. No entanto, os dados históricos mostram que quando o sentimento do mercado vai a extremos, isso muitas vezes significa que os preços têm maior probabilidade de recuperar.
Por exemplo, em 4 de julho deste ano, quando os comentários negativos superaram significativamente os comentários positivos, o preço do Bitcoin subiu cerca de 17% nos 11 dias seguintes. Uma situação semelhante ocorreu em 4 de Agosto, com os preços a subirem 14,3 por cento em apenas quatro dias. A discussão de ontem nas redes sociais sobre a caça às pechinchas superou até o recorde estabelecido no início de agosto. O sentimento está agora novamente num estado semelhante, com os comentários positivos a superarem os comentários negativos numa proporção de quatro para cinco, reflectindo o receio dos investidores de retalho de novas descidas de preços. Por outras palavras, quando a maioria das pessoas entra em pânico com o mercado e sai do mercado, muitas vezes é um excelente momento para investidores de longo prazo ou investidores com pensamento contrário entrarem no mercado.
The last bull market saw a significant rise in Bitcoin in mid-December 2020, and accelerated again at the end of December 2020. It seems that the actions in this cycle are slightly delayed, and of course, we are not sure whether this bull market cycle will form a double top. We need to pay attention to the market performance in the first quarter of next year. On January 20, Trump will officially take office, and FTX creditors will also gradually receive cash repayments, which are two potential price catalysts. Of course, on January 29, we have a 91% probability that we will not see a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish turn last week, this has already been partially reflected in the price, but new fluctuations are still expected next month.
Additionally, we can clearly see that the current market situation of Bitcoin has significant similarities with the early trend of the last bull market. The key here lies in the changes in RSI. In the early stages of the last Bitcoin bull market, there was also a similar large RSI correction, after which Bitcoin experienced several months of strong upward movement. This does not indicate a reversal of the market trend; on the contrary, this correction injects new momentum into the market. We can also see signals from more indicators suggesting that the Bitcoin bull market is not yet over. Currently, Bitcoin is preparing to break away from the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands, which has successfully predicted market reversal points in the previous two bull markets. We are now at a very critical stage.
At the same time, we also need to pay attention to the inflow of stablecoins, which are highly correlated with Bitcoin prices. Whenever a peak in the market value of stablecoins occurs over a 60-day period, Bitcoin prices often reach a peak as well. In other words, this indicator seems to predict the high points or turning points of Bitcoin prices to some extent. Although recent prices have shown some adjustments, fortunately, they have not fallen below the 30-day moving average, which is more like a market washout behavior, laying the foundation for stronger upward movements in the future.
