Author: Brayden Lindrea, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Deng Tong, Jinse Finance
Asset management firm VanEck stated that if the U.S. establishes a reserve of 1 million Bitcoins as proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, then the U.S. could reduce its national debt by 35% over the next 24 years.
VanEck estimates that by 2049, Bitcoin's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will reach 25%, hitting $42.3 million, while the CAGR of U.S. national debt will be 5%, increasing from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion.
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz stated in a report on December 20: “By 2049, this reserve could account for 35% of national debt, offsetting about $42 trillion in debt.”
It is expected that U.S. national debt will increase alongside Bitcoin reserves from 2025 to 2049. Source: VanEck
An “optimistic” forecast suggests that Bitcoin's 25% CAGR will start from a price point of $200,000 in 2025. Bitcoin's current trading price is $95,360, which needs to more than double to reach the starting point pointed out by VanEck.
A Bitcoin price of $42.3 million means it would account for about 18% of global financial assets—far above the approximately 0.22% it occupies in today's $900 trillion market.
The compound annual growth rate of U.S. national debt and Bitcoin reserve holdings, as well as Bitcoin's value, is estimated to be 25%. Source: VanEck
Donald Trump's new administration proposed the idea of a Bitcoin reserve, which drove the price of Bitcoin above six figures, but Senator Lummis's bill has yet to be reviewed by the Senate or House of Representatives.
Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers claimed earlier this month that Trump could issue an executive order on his first day in office designating Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
According to the Lummis bill, the U.S. could re-utilize the 198,100 Bitcoins it holds due to asset seizures, while the remaining 801,900 Bitcoins could be financed through emergency support functions, selling part of its $455 billion gold reserves in exchange for Bitcoin, or both—none of which would require printing money or taxpayer funds, VanEck noted.
Sigel and Frankovitz stated that the adoption of Bitcoin at the state, institutional, and enterprise levels across the U.S. will also boost the estimated compound annual growth rate of Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded fund issuers.
Sigel explained in a post on X on December 21 that the member nations of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) may also influence the price of Bitcoin and lead to its increasing use as currency.
They pointed out: “For countries that wish to avoid the parabolic growth of dollar sanctions, Bitcoin is likely to be widely used as a settlement currency for global trade.”
