Author: Brayden Lindrea, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Deng Tong, Jinse Finance
Asset management firm VanEck stated that if the U.S. establishes a reserve of 1 million bitcoins as proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, it could reduce its national debt by 35% over the next 24 years.
VanEck estimates that by 2049, Bitcoin's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will reach 25%, reaching $42.3 million, while the CAGR for U.S. national debt will reach 5%, rising from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion.
VanEck's head of digital asset research Matthew Sigel and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz stated in a report on December 20: 'By 2049, this reserve could account for 35% of national debt, offsetting about $42 trillion in debt.'
National debt in the U.S. is expected to increase with the growth of Bitcoin reserves from 2025 to 2049. Source: VanEck
"Optimistic" forecasts suggest that a 25% CAGR for Bitcoin will start from a price point of $200,000 in 2025. Bitcoin's current trading price is $95,360, needing to more than double to reach the starting point noted by VanEck.
A Bitcoin price rise to $42.3 million would mean it accounts for about 18% of global financial assets — far higher than the approximately 0.22% it holds in today’s $900 trillion market.
The estimated compound annual growth rates for U.S. national debt and Bitcoin reserves holdings and Bitcoin value is 25%. Source: VanEck
Donald Trump's new administration proposed the idea of Bitcoin reserves, pushing the price of Bitcoin to six figures, but Senator Lummis's bill has still not been reviewed by the Senate or House.
Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers claimed earlier this month that Trump might issue an executive order on his first day in office designating Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
According to the Lummis Act, the U.S. could reallocate its 198,100 bitcoins held due to asset seizures, while the remaining 801,900 bitcoins could be financed through emergency support functions, selling a portion of its $455 billion gold reserves in exchange for bitcoins, or both — all without the need to print money or taxpayer funds, VanEck noted.
Sigel and Frankovitz indicated that the adoption of Bitcoin across U.S. states, institutions, and businesses would also boost the compound annual growth rate estimates for Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded fund issuers.
Sigel explained in an X post on December 21 that the member nation states of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) could also influence Bitcoin's price and lead to its increasing use as a currency.
They noted: 'For those countries looking to avoid parabolic growth in dollar sanctions, Bitcoin is likely to be widely used as a settlement currency for global trade.'
