This week, the price of Bitcoin fell below $100,000, and I believe this decline is a healthy and effective correction, which is a common phenomenon in a bull market. In past cycles, the crypto market often experienced significant corrections, and these adjustments help to digest the risks of excessive speculation and lay the foundation for future increases.
The structural trend of Bitcoin's price remains intact, with no substantial changes, still above the trend line, so I maintain my previous view!
Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) - The actual cost basis for short-term holders has risen to about $85,357, which provides some support for the market. Short-term holders typically take profits when prices rise, which may lead to selling pressure, but with more institutional investors entering the market, market behavior may change.
Long-term holders of Bitcoin usually expect to achieve at least ten times their investment before selling large amounts of Bitcoin into the market. In contrast, short-term holders lack this patience and typically choose to take profits after realizing gains of 20% to 40%.
Since reaching its peak a few weeks ago, the U.S. stock market has seen the S&P 500 index decline by more than 4%, viewed as a minor sell-off. This pullback can be seen as a "healthy correction" as the index successfully tested the 50-day moving average, and despite briefly falling below it, it is currently in a rebound state. Meanwhile, the width of the 50-day moving average has fallen to oversold levels, indicating a normal market adjustment.
