#BNB
resumo
Os mercados criptográficos tiveram um desempenho sólido em 2024, com as empresas do ecossistema criptográfico demonstrando maior sustentabilidade, apesar de não trazerem uma explosão de novo capital. Olhando para 2025, o sócio-gerente da Pantera, Paul Veradittkit, oferece oito previsões principais, cobrindo a ascensão dos RWA (ativos do mundo real on-chain), o crescimento do Bitcoin-Fi, o papel da fintech como um gateway criptográfico, o ressurgimento dos NFTs e muito mais. Essas previsões baseiam-se nas tendências atuais do mercado e na evolução tecnológica, mostrando as amplas perspectivas para o futuro dos criptoativos e da infraestrutura.
1. 2024 Market Review and Trend Summary
In 2024, the total market cap of the crypto market will double to $3.5 trillion. Among them, the market cap of Bitcoin is about $1.9 trillion, while the total market cap of other cryptocurrencies is $1.6 trillion. Although the market has not experienced significant shocks, its diversified characteristics enhance its ability to cope with risks. Subfields such as payments, DeFi, gaming, ZK technology, infrastructure, and consumer applications all show sustained growth momentum.
Pantera's investment strategy in 2024 focuses on addressing key pain points in the ecosystem. For example:
Helika: Providing Web3 data analytics tools for crypto gaming.
Sahara AI: Integrating fragmented AI stacks to provide seamless user experiences for Web3 products.
Everclear: Standardizing the processes of intent infrastructure by connecting stakeholders.
Nexus: Modular zkVM solutions to meet the demands of ultra-scalable layers.
TON Blockchain: With Telegram's 950 million monthly active users, it supports attracting users for consumer applications.
These investments reflect Pantera's focus on the sustainability of the ecosystem and technological innovation.
2. Eight predictions for 2025
1. The proportion of RWA (real-world assets on-chain) will significantly increase
By the end of 2025, RWA (excluding stablecoins) is expected to account for 30% of the total on-chain locked value (TVL), doubling from the current 15%. The growth of RWA is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
Acceleration of private credit: Improvements in infrastructure have made the on-chain transfer of private credit more convenient, with asset values increasing by nearly $4 billion in 2024.
On-chain treasury bonds and commodities: On-chain treasury bonds currently value $2.67 billion, potentially attracting more capital inflows in the future.
More complex financial products: With the optimization of protocol infrastructure, products such as stocks, ETFs, and bonds may be introduced on-chain.
These trends will drive RWA to become an important component of the crypto market.
2. The rise of Bitcoin-Fi
With the development of Bitcoin-native financial protocols (such as Babylon), it is expected that by 2025, 1% of Bitcoin will participate in Bitcoin-Fi. This growth benefits from the following factors:
Native protocols without bridging: Attracting more users by reducing technical complexity.
High returns and rising Bitcoin prices: Stimulating investor interest.
Increased demand for BTC assets: Including new asset classes such as runes, ordinals, and BRC20.
The development of Bitcoin-Fi marks further maturity of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
3. Fintech becomes the gateway to cryptocurrencies
Fintech companies (like Venmo, Paypal, and Whatsapp) are becoming the main entry points for users to access cryptocurrencies. These platforms are characterized by neutrality and a large user base. For example:
Whatsapp: With 2.95 billion monthly active users, its built-in encryption feature Felix supports instant transfers.
Paypal and Venmo: Each with 500 million users, supporting cryptocurrency purchases.
Stripe and Robinhood: Further expanding crypto services by acquiring stablecoin companies and crypto exchanges.
The popularity of fintech platforms may enable them to compete with traditional centralized exchanges in the crypto asset space.
4. Unichain becomes the leader in L2 trading volume
The trading volume and locked amount of Uniswap continue to grow, driving the rise of its exclusive chain Unichain. If Unichain can capture half of Uniswap's trading volume, its volume will surpass the current largest L2 networks (like Arbitrum and Base) and become the market leader.
5. The resurgence of NFTs and the expansion of application scenarios
The functions of NFTs are gradually shifting from artworks and collectibles to practicality, mainly reflected in the following areas:
On-chain gaming: NFTs for ownership and trading of game assets.
Identity and membership management: For example, Blackbird integrates NFTs into restaurant rewards systems.
Tokenization of intellectual property: Story Protocol is committed to bringing global intellectual property on-chain, providing new revenue models for creators.
Brand collaborations: Luxury brand IWC launches membership NFTs, unlocking exclusive communities and events.
The flexibility and diversified use cases of NFTs will drive a new round of growth in 2025.
6. The mainnet launch of the re-staking protocol
Re-staking protocols like Eigenlayer, Symbiotic, and Karak are expected to launch their mainnets in 2025. These protocols attract more network adoption by paying operators AVS and reducing fees. The potential of the re-staking market is vast, possibly becoming an emerging field worth tens of billions.
7. Breakthroughs in zkTLS technology
zkTLS utilizes zero-knowledge proof technology to bring Web2 data onto the blockchain, driving the diversification of on-chain services. For example:
Verifying data sources: Proving that data comes from specific websites.
Privacy-preserving data oracles: Providing safer data inputs for on-chain services.
Although this technology is not yet fully mature, its potential is worth looking forward to.
8. Positive changes in the U.S. regulatory environment
In 2025, the U.S. regulatory environment may take a positive stance towards cryptocurrencies for the first time:
Change in SEC leadership: After Gary Gensler's resignation, new leadership may promote regulatory clarity.
Policy support: The expert team appointed by Trump is dedicated to formulating a legal framework for cryptocurrencies.
Taxation and asset class definition: Clearer policies are expected to be introduced.
These changes could bring long-term benefits to the crypto industry.
3. Summary and Outlook
In 2025, the crypto market is expected to continue growing driven by infrastructure optimization, improved user experience, and better regulatory environments. Pantera's predictions cover multiple areas from RWA to NFTs, showcasing the diversity and potential of the industry. Despite facing technological and market uncertainties, these trends provide clear directions for investors and developers.
In the coming years, competition in the crypto industry will become fiercer, and innovation will occur more frequently. Pantera's eight predictions paint a picture of a 2025 full of opportunities.
