In the past 24 hours, altcoins have seen the largest drops, with LTC once falling to $86.5. In fact, at the time of writing, Litecoin's price has rebounded to $96, up 4.72% over the past 24 hours.
Despite the recent drop in LTC prices, long-term holders of LTC remain optimistic and expect further increases.
78% of Litecoin long-term addresses remain bullish.
78% of Litecoin addresses have held LTC for over a year. These addresses have been accumulating during the bear market and selling near price peaks.
Although there have been increases in long-term stock sell-offs in previous cycles, this cycle is different.
In this cycle, LTC's long-term holdings have slightly decreased. However, compared to previous cycles, this decline is not significant. This indicates that there are fewer long-term holders selling LTC compared to previous bull markets.
Therefore, many holders expect the price to rise further as they are still waiting for the peak of the current cycle. This indicates that long-term holders are optimistic.
Litecoin repeats the post-2020 election pattern.
Analyzing the price trends of the LTC/USD pair in 2020 and the recent 2024 data reveals interesting similarities, further supporting LTH.
Both periods saw significant fluctuations before and after the U.S. elections, accompanied by substantial price increases.
At the end of 2020, the price of Litecoin rose from around $60 to a peak of over $160 in early 2021.
The pattern for Q4 2024 resembles the pattern of rapid price increases following elections, indicating further upward potential for prices.
Historically, these election-related rebounds have seen significant increases during the New Year. If the current pattern holds, Litecoin may break the $200 mark in early 2025.
As 2024 comes to a close, strong buy signals and increased trading volume are reminiscent of the situation in 2020.
This not only indicates the cyclicality of Litecoin but also illustrates the impact of broader market sentiment during elections.
This indicates that Litecoin may be poised for another upward movement, as seen previously.
What does the LTC chart suggest?
Despite lower sell volumes from long-term holders compared to other cycles and their continued optimism, the overall market remains bearish.
Therefore, we can see this bearish sentiment, as most investors hold short positions. The long/short ratio indicates that those holding short positions are dominating the market. This means that most traders expect the price to drop.
Moreover, large holders are also bearish, continuously reducing the inflow of funds into LTC, with net inflows for Litecoin whales dropping from 384,520 to 21,890.
This means that outflows have exceeded inflows for four consecutive days.
Finally, over the past 12 days, sellers have dominated the market. The continued decline in the relative strength index confirms the dominance of sellers. RSI has fallen from 71 to 40, nearing the oversold area.
In summary, while long-term holders are optimistic, retail traders are not. Thus, the market is experiencing short-term negative sentiment. If this sentiment continues, LTC could drop to $91.47.
However, if the bullish sentiment of long-term holders spreads to the entire market, LTC will reclaim the $140 level.