Experts have differing opinions on the severity of the situation, but no one denies the risks anymore. BCA Research nearly bets on a recession occurring in the United States and Canada next year. Their argument is that the labor market is too unstable and consumer spending is rapidly declining. While there won't be a disaster like in 2008, it will cause harm.
Goldman Sachs, the eternal optimist, suggests not to jump to conclusions too quickly. They bet on a 2.5% GDP growth in 2025 and place the likelihood of a recession at only 15%. They hope that the policy changes of the next government will not be too drastic.
However, JPMorgan has poured cold water on Goldman Sachs' optimistic outlook. They set the recession risk at 45% and point out that the contraction of the money supply and potential global shocks are major threats.
Let's talk numbers. GDP growth forecasts for 2025 vary. Goldman Sachs' 2.5% is on the high end, while some estimates are as low as 1.9%. What about the unemployment rate? It is expected to hover around 4.2%, but if inflation remains controlled, it may drop to about 3.5%.
So, what about the Federal Reserve? They are unlikely to lower interest rates more than twice next year, so inflation may rear its head early in January.
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