In the last analysis mentioned last night, the closing price of Bitcoin's reactive rise did not reach 95600, only reaching 95205, so those who entered the market over the weekend should be happy.
Bitcoin almost reached the level of 98K. Currently, the entire market has not created a completely positive and optimistic atmosphere. With the arrival of the weekend, Bitcoin's price trend is gradually stabilizing, forming a relatively smooth path. At this time, we should decisively refrain from taking action; we must not be misled by the deceptive appearances created by market fluctuations. If the anticipated price touches the resistance level and fails to continue rising, or if it falls to the support level and finds stabilization, I will operate based on previous analyses.
Based on a comprehensive judgment of multiple factors, I hold a bearish attitude towards Bitcoin's price trend. Currently, I am in a wait-and-see state, mainly to prevent the possibility of a sudden sharp pullback after this reactive price increase. Of course, those who are afraid of missing out can enter a small position.
From the perspective of price range judgment standards, when Bitcoin's price is above 98K, it can be considered that the market is in a relatively favorable positive situation. However, once the price falls below 95K, it indicates that the market situation has turned unfavorable, and there is no need for me to say what to do.
If the key support level of Bitcoin at 92k is effectively broken (not a false break), then it is highly likely that it will continue to decline to seek a new bottom price. In this process, early long positions may choose to close positions and cut losses due to market pressure.
I will strictly manage my itchy hands based on the key resistance and support levels of 98K, 95K, and 92K. Specifically, if Bitcoin successfully breaks through 98K, I will extract 75% of the profits from the most recent profitable short position while setting a breakeven stop-loss below the price point of the initial short entry to lock in some profits and prevent unexpected sharp rises. If the price subsequently falls below 95K, or even further down to 93K, I will more firmly maintain a short position and not easily change my established strategy.
Additionally, based on market data and trading model analysis, the cumulative long liquidation range for Bitcoin is roughly between 85000 and 83000. Within this range, market trading liquidity is relatively strong, and we can closely monitor when major exchanges will make buying moves in this range, as this could have a significant impact on future price trends.
What needs to be emphasized is that for Bitcoin and ETH, if their prices rise to the level I predetermined for opening long positions, I will immediately initiate a swing trading strategy. Even if buying operations only start after a 5% price increase, I will not regret this, as the price fluctuations of Bitcoin usually do not have a significant impact on the altcoin market, so conducting swing trading in this case still has certain profit opportunities and operational space.
