#比特币市场波动观察

$BTC In 2024, the Bitcoin market exhibited its inherent characteristics of high volatility. Market analysis indicated that the Bitcoin price surged rapidly at the beginning of the year, breaking historical highs, partly due to investors' expectations of a Bitcoin ETF and the impending Bitcoin halving event. However, after reaching a certain peak, the Bitcoin price experienced a notable correction, related to investors adjusting their sentiment after the market digested these positive news. According to market feedback, a significant support zone formed between $94,100 and $96,500, while there were significant resistance levels around $103,600 to $105,500 and near $108,900.

The macroeconomic environment also had a significant impact on the Bitcoin price. Economic policies globally, especially the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and inflation expectation management, directly influenced investors' preferences. During times of increased economic uncertainty, Bitcoin is often viewed as a hedge asset, driving prices upward. However, once the market expects economic stability or safer investment options emerge, the appeal of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset may weaken, leading to a price decline.

Changes in the regulatory environment are another influencing factor. At the beginning of 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the Bitcoin spot ETF, marking an increase in Bitcoin's acceptance in mainstream financial markets, but also raising issues of regulatory uncertainty. Different countries have varying attitudes toward cryptocurrencies, ranging from extreme welcome to strict restrictions, leading to market volatility. This is particularly true for countries like China, which were once centers for Bitcoin mining, where policy changes directly impact the global Bitcoin network's hash rate and price.

On the technical analysis front, Bitcoin's charts in 2024 showed multiple MACD divergences and signs of channel breakouts, which usually indicate the potential for price corrections or rebounds. On-chain data analysis revealed the behavior patterns of holders, such as holdings, trading volume, and the number of large transactions, all of which are important indicators for assessing market sentiment. Especially after Bitcoin's price broke through the previous bull market highs, the reference value of on-chain data may be somewhat limited, as it requires price corrections to provide new reference points.