Os dados dos EUA na sexta-feira mostraram que a taxa anual do índice de preços PCE em novembro foi de 2,4%, inferior ao valor esperado de 2,50% e superior ao valor anterior de 2,30%, o índice anual de preços PCE em novembro foi de 2,8%; inferior aos 2,90% esperados e inalterado em relação ao valor anterior de 2,80%. O índice mensal de preços PCE em novembro foi de 0,1%, e o núcleo do índice de preços PCE em novembro foi de 0,1%. Ambos foram inferiores ao valor anterior e ao valor esperado. A expectativa inicial para a taxa de inflação anual em dezembro era de 2,8%, inferior ao valor anterior de 2,90%. A inflação do PCE favorecida pelo Fed arrefeceu inesperadamente em todos os níveis, e o índice de ações e o mercado cambial dos EUA recuperaram. O mercado continuou a apostar que o Fed suspenderia os cortes nas taxas de juro em janeiro e aumentou as suas apostas num corte nas taxas em março.

Back to the point:

IMF's Kozak, when asked about the status of BTC in El Salvador, said: The use of BTC in El Salvador will be voluntary, and the agreement reached between the IMF and El Salvador aims to reduce potential BTC risks based on the IMF's policy framework. In addition, Kozak declined to comment on Trump's US BTC reserve plan, stating that a comprehensive assessment will be conducted when the policy is implemented. The ETH Foundation sold 4,466 ETH (approximately $12.6 million) in 32 transactions over the past year. On December 20, the El Salvador address increased its BTC reserves by 11 BTC worth $1.07 million. Mining company MARA: Increased holdings by 15,574 BTC in November and December, approximately $1.53 billion, at an average price of $98,529. Mining company Hut 8: Increased holdings by approximately 990 BTC, at an average price of $101,710, approximately $100 million. On December 20, MtGox sent 719.568 BTC to two new addresses. Greekslive analyst Adam stated that after BTC's failed attempt to break $110,000 this week, it entered a correction phase, cleaning up aggressive leveraged longs that had stabilized above $100,000, while the adjustment of altcoins has lasted nearly a month. Based on past bull market experience, a major correction in BTC will usher in a season for altcoins, but the current intensity of BTC's correction is still uncertain. FTX announced that it will start implementing the compensation plan on January 3, 2025, aimed at repaying customers harmed in the bankruptcy process, with the first round of distributions starting within 60 days after the effective date. FTX CEO John Ray III stated: Over the past two years, the professional team has successfully recovered billions of dollars in assets.

On December 20, CZ posted: "Waiting for new headlines, BTC reaches a new high again." Previously, CZ had posted on December 17, 2020: "Waiting for new headlines: BTC dropped from $101,000 to $85,000, keep this post." On December 19, the net outflow of US spot BTC ETF was $671.9 million. The net outflow of US spot ETH ETF was $60.5 million. K33 Research report: In 2024, institutional investors collectively increased their holdings of 859,454 BTC, accounting for approximately 4.3% of the total circulating supply, equivalent to 8 years of BTC issuance. Among them, the cumulative increase of spot ETF is 561,781 BTC, with the total management scale of US ETFs reaching 1.4 million BTC, of which BlackRock's IBIT holds 542,653 BTC, valued at about $54 billion; among US listed companies, a total increase of 297,673 BTC in 2024, with MicroStrategy increasing nearly 250,000 BTC, currently holding 439,000 BTC. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Hashdex's Nasdaq BTC and ETH combined crypto index US ETF listing. Early Thursday morning, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but reduced the expected number of rate cuts in 2025 from 4 to 2, leading to a general decline in US stock indices, gold, and the cryptocurrency market. Fed Chairman Powell stated: It is frustrating that the progress in reducing inflation is slower than expected. When considering rate cuts, we focus on the progress of inflation; after inflation rose, we returned to the right track in November and need to be patient and conduct careful assessments; it is clear that we have avoided an economic contraction, and from now on, we are entering a new stage, taking a cautious stance on further rate cuts and expecting another good year next year. We have moved quickly to this point, and in the future, we will move more slowly.

Friday's US data shows: November PCE price index year-on-year 2.4%, lower than expected 2.50%, higher than previous 2.30%; November core PCE price index year-on-year 2.8%, lower than expected 2.90%, same as previous 2.80%. November PCE price index month-on-month 0.1%, November core PCE price index month-on-month 0.1%, both lower than previous and expected values (market focus on monthly growth rate). December one-year inflation expectation initial value 2.8%, lower than previous 2.90%. After the inflation data was released, US stock indices and the cryptocurrency market rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising 1.35% during the session, the S&P 500 rising 1.4%, and the Dow Jones rising 1.5%. The PCE inflation data favored by the Fed unexpectedly cooled across the board, which should help alleviate the concerns of Fed members regarding the inflation outlook. The market continues to bet that the Fed will pause interest rate cuts in January and increase bets on rate cuts in March. Citigroup stated: Due to a 0.1% month-on-month increase in core PCE inflation in November, the rise in prices is slowing down, and the Fed's final rate cut may exceed current expectations. Employment stagnation and slowing inflation could also be sufficient reasons to cut rates at every meeting at least beyond January. Fed's Goolsbee said: We will see more inflation data similar to what was released today, and the inflation rate is still expected to reach 2%. Today's data shows that the recent inflation strength is just a "bump"; his personal prediction is that the interest rate path in 2025 will be slightly lower, and interest rates may decline significantly in the next 12 to 18 months, with the long-term neutral rate far below current rates.

The old man believes that there will be no interest rate cut in January, and the market will speculate on the Fed's rate cut in March. After a wave of upward movement in the cryptocurrency market, it has undergone adjustments and is preparing for the next wave of upward movement. The Fed's previous interest rate cuts were decisive, masked in the middle, and accelerated later, ultimately returning to a long-term neutral rate around 3.0%, with the current rate at 4.25-4.5%. A bull market undergoes periodic adjustments, not a bear market. On the eve of the Fed's interest rate meeting, the Nasdaq soared to a historical high of 20204 points (the low point of this cycle was 10088 points), and Bitcoin also reached a new high of $108,000. The bull market in US stock indices since 2012 occurred against the backdrop of the Fed's tightening of monetary policy beyond expectations. In 2025, the Fed is in a monetary easing background, and the fundamentals do not support the logic of starting a bull market, similarly for the cryptocurrency market. The drops in these two days are without complaint. The old man, like many others, believes that based on past bull market experience, a major correction in BTC will usher in a season for altcoins, and this time is no different. For altcoins, MEME was the main force in October-November, even reaching new highs; AI and RWA were the main forces in November-December, also reaching new highs; a bull market requires diligence and proactivity, seeking quality hotspots, and after this adjustment, I hope to see a new wave of upward movement. (The old man still favors AI and RWA, ETH also needs to catch up.)#PCE通胀降温