Will Trump create an economic miracle immediately upon taking office?
There are about 1 month left until Trump's inauguration. Due to the general market expectation that inflation will rise after he takes office, the recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, coupled with Powell's hawkish remarks, has lowered the expectation for rate cuts in 2025 to 2 times 25 basis points, significantly below previous expectations.
The Federal Reserve has even postponed its goal of controlling inflation at 2% to 2027, indicating that it believes there is significant uncertainty regarding inflation under Trump's administration.
Currently, Bitcoin's bull market relies on ETF and institutional funds represented by MSTR for support. However, despite the recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the financial environment remains tight. Since September, long-term bond yields and mortgage rates have been rising, and the appreciation of the dollar poses macro risks for Bitcoin, as the dollar's appreciation is also related to the contraction of global money supply, which is often unfavorable for Bitcoin and other crypto assets, while the Federal Reserve's net liquidity continues to decrease.
With Christmas approaching, the end of the 2024 fiscal year, and Trump's imminent inauguration, the capital market has already priced in this scenario. Historically, this time window has seen relatively calm capital markets. Industry mogul Arthur Hayes believes that the cryptocurrency market will experience a painful crash around Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, followed by a buying opportunity.
