A queda do Bitcoin de 10w8 para 10w é exatamente a mesma que a queda do mês passado de 9w8 para 9w. Para um ativo altamente cíclico como o Bitcoin, grandes flutuações são normais, desde que você consiga encontrar cada aumento ou Contanto que o declínio seja razoável, você. pode ser imperturbável. Para mim, não é isso que experimentei no mês passado? Também conheço o próximo enredo, que é chato!
Vamos falar primeiro sobre o declínio da noite passada. Embora o mercado esteja em pânico e os imitadores estejam morrendo de medo, acho que não é nada. Vamos deixar de lado os vários eventos negativos que ocorreram na noite passada e apenas falar sobre o meu. Comparando o que tenho falado nos últimos dias com a tendência de 90.000 a 100.000 do Bitcoin que começou em 21 de novembro, você descobrirá que toda vez que o Bitcoin sobe para um número grande, ele precisa passar por uma grande correção.
This drop doesn't surprise me at all, because this is exactly what we just experienced last month. Moreover, I have mentally prepared for the subsequent trend. Bitcoin has started to return to an upward oscillation since November 27, officially breaking the 100,000 mark after a week's time. Even if the storyline this time is not completely identical, it's still very similar. So before next weekend, we will see Bitcoin above 110,000. If you don't believe it, you can take a screenshot now.
Then let's rationally analyze a few reasons for this drop:
(1) The Federal Reserve's hawkish statements
Last night, although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the dot plot cut the originally expected 4 rate cuts next year down to 2, and the 4 cuts in 2026 were also reduced to 2. This is arguably the most hawkish dot plot of the year. Powell's post-meeting speech was also full of hawkish tones, emphasizing that the pace of rate cuts will slow down, and expressing concerns about inflation rebounding. In a particularly provocative moment, Powell directly named Bitcoin, saying, 'We are not allowed to hold Bitcoin.' This statement caused the market to collapse.
Of course, it's not just the cryptocurrency market that crashed. Yesterday, the Dow Jones fell for ten consecutive days, setting the longest losing streak since 1974, dropping over a thousand points. The S&P fell nearly 3%, marking the largest decline on a rate cut day since 2001, and the Nasdaq dropped over 3%. Tesla fell over 8%, and so on. In summary, the earlier decline in U.S. stocks led to a crash in the cryptocurrency market, and after Powell's comment, the cryptocurrency market fell again.
(2) MicroStrategy unable to purchase Bitcoin
MicroStrategy announced last night that it will suspend issuing convertible bonds to purchase Bitcoin starting in January, due to the fact that January 2025 is the lock-up period for MSTR shares. During this period, MicroStrategy cannot raise funds to purchase Bitcoin through on-market trading (ATM) or convertible bonds. There are two interpretations of the specific timing of this lock-up period; some believe it is a full month, while others predict it starts from January 14 for 30 days. Currently, MicroStrategy has not officially responded to this rumor.
In short, this news is definitely a negative for Bitcoin. In the recent price increases of Bitcoin, we have seen news of MicroStrategy replenishing their holdings. The capital flow rate of ETFs has also been affected by MicroStrategy's purchases. Last night, only $275 million flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, which is half of this week's average level.
However, in the long run, Bitcoin's current drop is not a big deal!
Regarding Powell's bearish stance on Bitcoin, it is known that Trump is bullish, and now Trump's power is basically at its peak in the U.S. Removing Powell is just a matter of a single statement. Even if he isn't ousted, Arthur Hayes believes that Trump could balance Powell through his nominated Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. In summary, the market's recent drop is indeed a bit impulsive; rational thinking should distinguish between major and minor players.
As for MicroStrategy suspending its accumulation of Bitcoin in January, this is only temporary. They will have to buy in February and March, and given that the capital remains unchanged, the buying speed will increase later. Furthermore, there are still $16 billion from FTX compensation entering the market in the first quarter of next year, along with various states' strategic reserve plans, which the Federal Reserve cannot control. The Federal Reserve is just a money-printing institution; the Treasury is the one that spends.
Therefore, the long-term upward trend of Bitcoin remains unchanged. This pullback is simply a cleanup of leverage, paving the way for new investors.
