Crypto Insider, Butcher Cutting Beef 12-18
One Focus on Economic Data and Events:
(1) Interest rate cut by 25 basis points (Powell adopts hawkish stance, unlikely to cut rates in January next year, bearish sentiment realized)
(2) Geopolitics: Turmoil - Major Progress! Gaza ceasefire negotiations enter the final stage (Today's gold price 2598.4U)
(3) USD/JPY exchange rate: 156.84 (bullish, no interest rate hike, yen continues to depreciate)
Two On-chain Data and Market Sentiment:
(1) Market Sentiment Analysis: 69 (greedy, down 11)
(2) ETF Dynamics: Yesterday's net inflow of 2567 BTC (BlackRock continues to aggressively buy 3362 BTC, stable)
(3) Mining Data Analysis: 825.67 eh/s, transaction fee 6.52 gas: 6 S19 shutdown coin price: 58588-92662U
(4) Recent Large Options: December 20th maximum pain point 102000U, nominal amount 2.076 billion
(5) Today's BTC holding weighted funding rate: 0.0083% (funding rate normal range slightly fluctuating)
(5) BTC market cap share 57.08%, negatively correlated
(6) Today's volatility main logic review:
1. Powell adopts hawkish stance
2. Japan does not raise interest rates
Recent Potential Bullish Factors
1. FTX compensation funds enter the market (court-approved Chapter 11 reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025)
2. Continue to cut rates by 25 basis points in December
3. Japan maintains interest rates in December
Recent Potential Bearish Factors
1. Japan's next interest rate hike surprise (January/March)
2. US pauses rate cuts (January)
3. Risk of correction before Trump officially takes office on January 20
The above content is for information sharing only,
does not constitute any investment advice!
Investment has risks, proceed with caution!