Na madrugada de 19 de dezembro, horário de Pequim, o Comitê Federal de Mercado Aberto anunciou que reduziria o intervalo-alvo da taxa dos fundos federais em 25 pontos base, para 4,25%-4,5%. Esta é a terceira redução consecutiva da taxa de juro pela Reserva Federal desde Setembro deste ano, e a redução acumulada da taxa ao longo do ano atingiu 100 pontos base. No entanto, a julgar pelos sinais divulgados pela Reserva Federal, o seu ritmo de redução das taxas de juro em 2025 poderá ser mais cauteloso. Como resultado, o dólar americano subiu, as moedas não americanas e o ouro caíram, e o Bitcoin também foi afetado. Olhando para o futuro, os analistas salientam que ainda há apoio para o aumento dos preços do ouro no médio e longo prazo, uma vez que os ajustamentos anticíclicos internos aumentarão significativamente no próximo ano, a taxa de câmbio do RMB continuará a flutuar em ambas as direções, perto de um nível de equilíbrio razoável; 2025. 01A Reserva Federal abranda o ritmo dos cortes nas taxas de juro
"The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this time aligns with market expectations, but the economic forward guidance released and the extent of reduction shown in the dot plot indicate a smaller future cut than expected, while Chairman Powell's hawkish statement exceeded market expectations," Morgan Asset Management believes. The statement from this meeting suggests that the Federal Reserve's future pace of interest rate cuts may not only be prolonged but also the overall extent of the cuts may be limited. According to the closely watched 'dot plot', the Federal Reserve states that there will only be two rate cuts in 2025, down from four predicted in September. Furthermore, four Federal Reserve officials believe that the expected rate cut in 2025 will be 25 basis points or less. Powell stated that the decision to cut rates in December is more challenging but is the 'correct decision'. The Federal Reserve is expected to be 'more cautious' when considering adjustments to policy rates in the future. Whether the Federal Reserve cuts rates in 2025 will be based on future data rather than current forecasts, and the Federal Reserve will consider further rate cuts only after inflation improves.
It is precisely because of the Federal Reserve's 'hawkish' adjustments that the future pace of interest rate cuts is becoming more cautious, leading to a trend where the dollar and non-dollar currencies have moved in the opposite direction of previous rate cuts. Looking back at September, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points for the first time in four years, and as signals of narrowing China-U.S. interest rate differentials were released, the renminbi strengthened, with the offshore renminbi to U.S. dollar exchange rate once soaring to around 7.08.
On the morning of December 19, the U.S. dollar index surged sharply, reaching a high of 108.13; non-dollar currencies collectively fell, with the offshore renminbi to U.S. dollar exchange rate dropping below 7.32. As of 5 PM that day, the offshore renminbi to U.S. dollar exchange rate was reported at 7.3088, and the onshore renminbi to U.S. dollar exchange rate was reported at 7.2977.
Gold and the renminbi exchange rate situation is similar. Also affected by the 'hawkish rate cut', international gold prices plummeted, with spot gold prices dropping below $2,600 per ounce. However, as of December 19, Beijing time, spot gold prices have rebounded, rising from an opening price of $2,587.5 per ounce to around $2,620 per ounce.
According to Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, the overnight U.S. stock and bond market slump, the strong rebound of the dollar, and the pressure on commodities like gold were not surprising reactions from the market. The main reason is that the Federal Reserve has signaled a slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts, and the market is concerned that a high-interest-rate environment may impact the U.S. economy, leading to a tightening of financial conditions and resulting in the sell-off of overvalued U.S. stocks and other assets.
02
Our policies remain independent
However, looking ahead, analysts generally believe that the fluctuations brought about by this Federal Reserve interest rate cut will not last for long, from the renminbi to gold.
On one hand, in the long run, the price of gold is influenced by various factors, including global economic conditions, inflation expectations, geopolitical situations, and investment demand. Wu Zewei, a researcher at the Xingtu Financial Research Institute, stated that considering the significant uncertainty in the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting cycle, combined with Trump's open attitude towards rate cuts upon taking office next year, and even a 'shadow Fed chairman plan', the extent of rate cuts next year may exceed expectations; Trump plans to intervene in the Israel-Palestine conflict, and his foreign tariffs may lead to countermeasures from other countries, potentially increasing global geopolitical risks. In addition, the People's Bank of China has resumed buying gold after several months, and the global central bank's wave of gold accumulation has not yet reached its peak. All these factors will support the price of gold to rise in the medium to long term.
For the renminbi, based on the strong resilience of China's economic growth, the gradual implementation of positive policies, and sufficient foreign exchange reserves, the renminbi exchange rate is still firmly supported to maintain basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, pointed out that next year, the slowdown in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will become a supporting factor for the U.S. dollar index, which may lead to a certain passive depreciation momentum for the renminbi. However, the fluctuations in the dollar index are the result of a combination of factors, and changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are just one of the influencing factors. Regarding the trend of the renminbi in 2025, the most important influencing factors may not be the changes in the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, but rather the potential impacts of the new U.S. government's trade policy and the effectiveness of domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policies.
"In the short term, there is a certain degree of fluctuation in the China-U.S. interest rate differential, but the China-U.S. policies are 'aligned'. In terms of the extent of interest rate cuts, the future cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to be greater than those domestically, and the China-U.S. interest rate differential is expected to gradually narrow," said Zhou Maohua.
It is worth noting that in the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference, 'maintaining the basic stability of the renminbi exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level' was also emphasized. Wang Qing stressed that this does not mean that the renminbi exchange rate against the dollar should remain basically unchanged, but rather that the CFETS and other major basket indices of the renminbi exchange rate should maintain basic stability and adapt to changes in the economic fundamentals. In addition, if there are sudden sharp rises or falls in the renminbi exchange rate that deviate from the fundamentals in the future, various stabilizing tools from the regulatory authorities will act promptly. Historical evidence shows that these policy tools can effectively guide market expectations and prevent risks of excessive exchange rate adjustments.
Zhou Maohua further stated that the Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting cycle, while the renminbi exchange rate has shown significant elasticity, and China's policies are self-directed, maintaining macroeconomic independence. The impact on the domestic stock market is also limited. Fluctuations in overseas markets affect domestic market sentiment, but the fundamental determining factors for the domestic stock market still lie in domestic economic fundamentals and policies. At present, China's economy continues to show a steady recovery trend, with prices rising moderately, and as the effects of a comprehensive set of domestic macro policies are gradually released, consumption and domestic demand in China are expected to accelerate recovery.
03
Bitcoin's strategic implementation is hindered
At the press conference following the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, Powell also made a statement regarding Bitcoin.
"We cannot hold Bitcoin. (The Federal Reserve Act) stipulates what we can own, and we have no intention of seeking to amend the law. This is a matter for Congress to consider, but the Federal Reserve has not sought to change it," Powell said, adding that the Federal Reserve does not plan to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet.
Trump previously promised to implement policies favorable to the cryptocurrency industry after taking office and considered establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Now, the Federal Reserve's stance is clearly at odds with the previous market's optimistic expectations. "In the short term, it may have a cooling effect on market sentiment, as some investors may have originally expected Bitcoin to gradually receive higher-level institutional endorsement," said Yu Jianing, co-chairman of the Blockchain Special Committee of the China Communications Industry Association and honorary chairman of the Hong Kong Blockchain Association.
On December 19, the price of Bitcoin briefly dropped below $100,000 per coin, marking the largest single-day decline since August. On December 18, Bitcoin had just broken through $108,000 for the first time, setting a new historical high. As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin was $101,510, with a decline of 2.6% in 24 hours.
However, in the view of Jia Ning, Powell's statement also reveals another signal: although the Federal Reserve cannot directly hold Bitcoin, its understanding of Bitcoin is gradually shifting from complete neglect to a passive acknowledgment. Especially in the current global macroeconomic environment, decentralized assets are increasingly seen by more countries and institutions as reserve and risk-hedging tools, a trend that may continue to reinforce Bitcoin's 'digital gold' attributes in the long run.
At the same time, Powell's direct response to Bitcoin also means that as an emerging asset, Bitcoin has moved from the margins into the realm of mainstream policy discussion, which is undoubtedly an important psychological signal.
Looking ahead, although Trump has promised to implement 'policies favorable to the digital asset industry' and has already planned to establish new positions related to cryptocurrency in the White House and nominate Bitcoin supporters, the implementation of these policies contains both opportunities and numerous practical obstacles.
Yu Jianing analyzed that Trump's policy commitments convey a clear message to the market that the U.S. may relax regulations on the digital asset industry, promoting technological innovation and capital inflows. However, as a non-sovereign asset, the 'decentralized' nature of digital assets cannot ignore the contradictions with traditional financial systems and government regulatory objectives. Core regulatory agencies such as the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve hold a cautious long-term attitude towards the potential financial risks of the digital asset industry, especially under the pressure of anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing, where regulators may strongly reserve their stance on policy relaxation.
Therefore, Trump's policy promises seem more like a tool for managing market expectations rather than an immediate industry reform, but the actual effect will depend on the complex political and regulatory game. "Whether the U.S. digital asset industry can truly benefit from this policy commitment depends on whether Trump's team can find a balance between deregulation and risk control," Yu Jianing said.
