The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in December, but due to an unfavorable outlook on inflation control, the stance has turned hawkish. According to the FOMC's benchmark interest rate forecast for the end of 2025, there may only be two rate cuts next year (each by 25 basis points), which is lower than the market expectation of three. The probability of a rate cut in January next year is only 6.4%.