O Bitcoin se tornou um consenso depois de ser suprimido por vários países. Trump ainda apoiava moedas virtuais quando assumiu o cargo. Esta queda foi causada pelo humor temporário de Powell e não é uma tendência geral.


[Compilação de dados do Golden October: Visão geral dos destaques da declaração do FOMC do Federal Reserve e da conferência de imprensa de Powell]

Declaração do FOMC:

1. Resumo da declaração: A redacção permanece praticamente inalterada A decisão de cortar as taxas de juro em 25 pontos base foi aprovada com uma votação de 11-1. Reduzir o ON-RRP em 30 pontos base.

2. Perspectivas para as taxas de juro: Serão consideradas a “magnitude e o momento” de novos cortes nas taxas de juro. O valor mediano do gráfico de pontos aumentou, indicando que as taxas de juro serão reduzidas duas vezes em cada um dos próximos dois anos, mas alguns responsáveis ​​estão profundamente divididos.

3. Inflation Outlook: Delaying the target date for achieving 2% inflation to 2027, raising expectations for 2024-2026 across the board, most officials expect risks to be tilted upward.

4. Economic Outlook: Slightly lowering unemployment rate expectations. The wording on steady economic growth remains unchanged, raising the actual GDP growth expectations for this year and next year from 2% to a significant 2.5%.

Powell Press Conference:

1. Interest Rate Outlook: Can be more cautious when considering interest rate adjustments, the changes in the statement's wording indicate it is in or near the stage of slowing down rate cuts, rate hikes next year seem unlikely. If inflation cannot consistently move toward 2%, rate cuts may be slower. Slow rate cuts may hurt the economy and employment.

2. Inflation Outlook: It may take another year or two to reach the target; risks and uncertainties are high; discussing how tariffs may drive inflation.

3. Economic Outlook: Overall economic performance is strong, with economic growth in the second half faster than expected, there is no reason to believe that the likelihood of an economic downturn is higher than usual.

4. Employment Outlook: The labor market remains robust, not a significant source of inflationary pressure, has not cooled to a worrying extent, will continue to monitor.

5. Other Statements: (Regarding Bitcoin reserve policy) The Federal Reserve does not allow and has no intention of holding Bitcoin. Today's interest rate decision was a relatively tough choice.

6. Market Reaction: From the statement release to Powell's speech, spot gold fell sharply by $56; the dollar index has increased by 110 points since the announcement, reaching a two-year high; 2Y U.S. Treasury yields rose by 15 basis points; the Nasdaq's decline widened to 3%; Bitcoin fell by over $5000.

7. Latest Expectations: Traders' pricing for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts continues to decrease, expecting only a 37 basis point cut in 2025, far below the 75 basis points before the meeting.