CoinVoice has learned that CITIC Securities stated that the Fed will cut rates by 25bps at the December 2024 meeting, which aligns with market expectations. This dot plot shows that next year's target interest rate midpoint is 3.9%, higher than the 3.4% shown in the September 2024 meeting, while also raising forecasts for inflation and economic growth next year and lowering the unemployment rate forecast for next year.
Powell's speech did not provide clear guidance on the 'degree and timing' of future rate cuts, but there is strong confidence in economic growth. From the SEP and Powell's remarks, the Fed has significant concerns about inflation next year. This interest rate meeting is much more hawkish than the market generally expected, but it aligns with our view that the Fed will cut rates twice in 2025. We maintain this view and expect that the Fed will likely pause rate cuts at the next meeting to observe, or may need to wait until the March meeting to provide clearer guidance. Volatility in the US stock market is expected to increase. (Jin Shi) [Original link]