From the detailed data released by the interest rate meeting, the Fed's expectations for the economy are relatively optimistic, but its adjustments for inflation are somewhat pessimistic. This may be the main reason why the Fed decided to reduce interest rate cuts in 2025. Reducing interest rate cuts means that interest rates will still be at a high point, potentially remaining above 4% throughout 2025. This increases the chances of a black swan event, and for the market, the difficulty of financing remains significant, as investors are still reluctant to increase their risk appetite.
This is consistent with what was said earlier; even the positive impact of a 25 basis point rate cut is suppressed by the negative signals from the dot plot. The U.S. stock market has seen widespread declines, and the U.S. dollar index continues to rise, reflecting the market's pessimistic expectations. Especially with Christmas approaching, the U.S. stock market is less relevant. If cryptocurrencies cannot reverse the negative sentiment before Christmas, the difficulty of this 'Christmas calamity' may increase.
During the day, there will also be interest rate adjustments in Japan, which are likely to remain unchanged. However, if Japan also raises interest rates, although the impact may not be significant, it will add to the emotional impact with a deBuff effect.