Financial Associated Press, 19 de dezembro (Editor Xia Junxiong) Na quarta-feira (18 de dezembro), horário do Leste, o presidente do Federal Reserve, Powell, disse em uma entrevista coletiva após a reunião de taxas de juros que o Federal Reserve está em um momento ou próximo de desaceleração dos cortes nas taxas de juros e irá no próximo ano. A decisão de cortar as taxas baseia-se nos dados e um aumento das taxas parece improvável.
A Reserva Federal anunciou um corte de 25 pontos base na taxa de juro na quarta-feira, em linha com as expectativas do mercado, e o intervalo alvo da taxa de fundos federais foi reduzido para 4,25% -4,5%. Este é o terceiro corte consecutivo nas taxas por parte da Fed, após cortes de 50 pontos base em Setembro e de 25 pontos base em Novembro.
The latest dot plot shows that policymakers expect to cut rates twice in 2025, while in September, the forecast for rate cuts next year once reached four times.
Although a rate cut ultimately occurred in December, Powell claimed it was a difficult but correct decision.
He pointed out that acting too slowly could unnecessarily weaken economic activity in the labor market, while acting too quickly could undermine the Fed's progress in controlling inflation. Therefore, the Fed is trying to find a balance between these two risks.
Discussing future monetary policy actions
Powell stated that after this rate cut action, the Fed has lowered the policy rate by a full 100 basis points from its peak, and the restrictive stance of monetary policy is now clearly less stringent than before, allowing policymakers to consider more rate adjustments with greater caution.
Regarding future monetary policy actions, Powell stated that any interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 will be based on forthcoming data, rather than the current economic situation.
He said that since the Fed is working to maintain a strong labor market while bringing inflation down to 2%, it seems unlikely that interest rate hikes will occur next year.
Affirming the performance of the U.S. economy
Powell affirmed the performance of the U.S. economy, repeatedly using terms like solid, strong, and resilient.
He stated that the overall economic performance is strong; economic growth in the second half of 2024 is faster than expected; there is no reason to believe that the likelihood of an economic downturn is higher than usual; it is clear that the U.S. has avoided recession; and he is very optimistic about the economy.
Powell stated that policymakers generally expect GDP growth to remain strong.
Discussing inflation and the job market
The Fed stated that, given the stickiness of year-on-year inflation data, it will continue to monitor the progress of inflation improvement in 2025.
"When considering further rate cuts, we will pay attention to improvements in inflation," Powell said. "We have seen almost no significant progress in the 12-month inflation data."
Powell believes that consumers are more affected by high prices rather than the direct effects of high inflation.
"We are very aware that prices have risen significantly, and people are indeed feeling this, including in areas like food, transportation, and heating costs. This global inflation surge has caused significant pain," he said. "Despite the fact that inflation levels have decreased substantially, people still feel the pressure of high prices, which is the most direct feeling for consumers."
He added that the best solution is for the Fed to continue working to bring inflation down to target levels so that wages can keep up with inflation, ultimately restoring consumers' good feelings about the economy.
Powell stated that policymakers are closely monitoring the dynamics of the labor market.
"From multiple indicators, we do believe that the labor market is cooling, but the cooling is not fast and has not triggered real concerns," he said.
Some officials have begun to assess the potential impact of Trump's policies
The elected President of the United States, Trump, has threatened to implement a radical tariff plan after taking office, and economists generally believe this could lead to a resurgence of inflation in the U.S.
Powell revealed that some members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have begun preliminary assessments of the potential impacts of Trump's policies.
He specifically mentioned Trump's tariff plan, stating that it is still too early to draw conclusions about how it will affect inflation.
Powell stated that the Fed has no intention of holding Bitcoin.
Trump previously promised to implement policies favorable to the cryptocurrency industry after taking office and consider establishing a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.
Powell stated that the Fed does not intend to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet.
"We cannot hold Bitcoin. (The Federal Reserve Act) specifies what we can own, and we do not intend to seek a change in the law. This is something for Congress to consider, but we at the Fed are not seeking change," Powell said.
(Caixin News, Xia Junxiong)