Recently, the market conditions in the crypto space have been unusually difficult for most retail investors.
Because as the representative currency of the crypto market—Bitcoin—continues to hit new highs, most retail investors hold altcoins that have not only failed to explode in growth but are also continuously declining.
The divergence trend between Bitcoin and altcoins is becoming increasingly evident.
So, is this round of the crypto market really just a bull market for Bitcoin? Do altcoins really have no future?
Before the significant drop in the altcoin market, I personally warned in an article on the evening of December 7 that the market might be about to face a big pullback!
Subsequently, on December 9, this was confirmed:
Community members successfully avoided risk before this wave of altcoin decline.
In fact, from my perspective, the sluggishness of altcoins is not due to a lack of potential, but the true explosive phase has not yet arrived.
The reason is that the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoin trends is still due to insufficient liquidity. Furthermore, this round of market trend is initiated by institutions.
At the same time, Bitcoin, due to its increasingly important financial status, has become more than just a financial product; it has been placed in a strategic position.
In this case, mastering the 'pricing power' of Bitcoin becomes particularly important.
So, even if Bitcoin undergoes a washout, it will not have the same intensity as altcoins. Institutions can purchase Bitcoin through on-site ETFs.
But the vast majority of altcoins are different. What truly remains in altcoins comes from the trapped funds of retail investors on exchanges, and it is challenging for traditional institutional incremental funds to directly enter the altcoin market.
This has led to a significant decrease in altcoin liquidity because there is no substantial influx of new funds into altcoins. Even during a crash, institutions are not worried about altcoins being snapped up.
Because retail investors who are trapped are not to be feared. They are either stuck at the top or trapped in the middle of a downtrend, unable to move.
As institutions finish another round of consolidation at the bottom, they can initiate a new market trend. This goes on and on.
However, altcoins will not remain like this forever. As Bitcoin becomes entrenched in traditional fields, its mission will be nearly completed.
Altcoins are the cornerstone of the entire crypto market. As Bitcoin's status continues to rise, some altcoins will also unleash their true potential.
But this does not mean that all altcoins will have huge gains in the future.
And before that, the layout of altcoins should consider personal judgments about the future direction of the crypto market and layout vision.
At this stage, from a personal perspective, altcoins have not lost their potential.
Rather, it is a cleaning up of the deeply trapped positions from the last bull market and the peak in March this year, which is the ongoing weekly pullback.
Making retail investors feel that altcoins are hopeless also achieves the true goal of altcoin manipulators.
Regarding the interest rate cut decision to be announced by the Federal Reserve tonight, the expectation for a 25 basis point cut has already risen to over 96%, making the rate cut nearly a certainty.
But will the altcoin market immediately improve after interest rate cuts? This is still open to discussion.
From the market perspective, Bitcoin broke new highs last night and then faced a 5000-point pullback, but most altcoins still fell without rising.
The market outlook is not optimistic. Additionally, a new batch of trapped positions has accumulated above.
After the announcement tonight, a short-term surge in Bitcoin and altcoins is highly likely, but upon hitting the upper resistance level, I will temporarily sell and observe the situation.
Then wait for another buying opportunity after the good news materializes.
From the weekly perspective, a small number of coins have reached buying positions after the last crash, such as Looks, Morpho, Core, and others.
The distance from the low to the high has an increase of over 30%, and Morpho doubled in just six days.
When the last altcoin crash occurred, I personally entered a 30% position for the long term. After the interest rate cuts, if most altcoins fall another 10-20% on top of the current market, do not panic. I believe it might rather be a buying opportunity for a new round of altcoin market.
Personally, I will also buy in with a 50% position and wait for the second wave of altcoin market surge.
As for the medium to long-term layout direction, it still focuses on RWA, newly emerging AI, some meme coins, and the Hong Kong sector.
The viewpoint is a personal subjective opinion and is for reference only!