Um palpite ousado, sem corte nas taxas de juros

Today, a decline is highly likely, as investors need to hedge ahead of tonight's Federal Reserve meeting. The focus of this meeting is no longer a 25 basis point rate cut, but rather the dot plot and Powell's speech.

In simple terms, the Federal Reserve may implement only 2 to 4 rate cuts in 2025. The higher the interest rates in 2025, the greater the probability of a black swan event, and the market will be increasingly concerned about the delay in easing policies. Therefore, investors' risk awareness is rising, and there is a detailed explanation in the pinned tweet.

In addition to the interest rate meeting, there is also the question of whether Japan will raise interest rates in December, with results expected on the 19th. Although the probability of a rate hike is indeed low, it is normal to hedge, and these two events today are likely to be linked to next week's Christmas.