A QCP Capital mencionou nos últimos comentários publicados em seu canal oficial do Telegram que embora o Natal se aproxime e o clima festivo fique mais forte, o mercado não parece ter muitos motivos para comemorar. “A última reunião do Fed de 2024 será realizada esta noite”, disse o QCP, “e esperamos que o Fed corte as taxas de juros em 25 pontos base e divulgue seu gráfico de pontos final do ano”.
Tendência hawkish, a trajetória dos cortes nas taxas de juros em 2025 permanece incerta
Embora o sentimento do mercado durante a temporada de férias seja normalmente mais leve, a QCP Capital espera que a declaração desta noite e o gráfico de pontos possam ter um tom ligeiramente agressivo. Isto reflectiria que a inflação nos EUA permaneceria estável acima da meta de 2% da Fed e que o mercado de trabalho permaneceria forte. Relativamente à política monetária futura, o QCP prevê que a Fed não assumirá um compromisso claro com a trajetória de cortes nas taxas de juro em 2025 na sua declaração, mas em vez disso enfatizará a dificuldade de acelerar os cortes nas taxas de juro.
In terms of the dot plot, the Fed is expected to convey the expectation of three rate cuts in 2025, but specific details will remain cautious. This means that although the market generally anticipates the introduction of easing policies, actual operations may still be constrained by inflationary pressures and a robust labor market.
Market liquidity is declining
Although QCP Capital does not believe that the Fed's meeting will have a significant impact, they remind investors that market liquidity is gradually declining, which may lead to increased price volatility and trigger large-scale liquidation actions. The cautious sentiment of market participants, combined with the approach of the Christmas holiday, may exacerbate price fluctuations, and investors need to be prepared to cope with potential market turmoil.
BTC Technical Outlook
Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, QCP Capital indicates that a Evening Star pattern has formed on BTC's daily chart, along with bearish divergence signals. This suggests that in the short term, BTC's price may face downward pressure. However, QCP also reminds investors not to rush to liquidate in such a volatile market environment. Although the current technical signals appear bearish, maintaining existing positions may bring more profits as the potential bull market in the cryptocurrency market begins in 2025, especially against the backdrop of Trump's presidency.
With the latest developments from the Fed and the decline in market liquidity, the end of 2024 may be filled with uncertainty. However, in such an environment, investors need to remain calm, especially in the cryptocurrency sector. The future market is still full of opportunities, particularly as a potential bull market in the crypto space approaches.
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