Today, Bitcoin hit a new high, with the highest price reaching $107,793. The main reason for this surge is that MicroStrategy's stock was included in the Nasdaq 100 index, and the company's CEO, Michael Saylor, announced another large-scale purchase of Bitcoin.
From this perspective, MicroStrategy clearly believes that Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark is just the starting point, hence the continued accumulation. This move is evidently event-driven, but unfortunately, such momentum may be difficult to sustain. Without new FOMO sentiment spreading, the market may experience a pullback in the short term.
Regarding altcoins:
Currently, most altcoins are being suppressed by Bitcoin, generally down about 10%. The entire market is still in a consolidation phase, which is expected to last for 1-2 weeks. With the arrival of January, Ethereum and altcoins may explode and hit new highs.
After a large-scale liquidation and leverage clearing, the market's risk has been released, and the funding rate has returned to normal. The current market presents a gradually rising bottoming oscillation. If the price pulls back to the daily 20 moving average, it could be a good buying opportunity.
In the upcoming altcoin layout, two major concepts are worth paying attention to:
The reservoir after Bitcoin's capital overflow: namely ETH, XRP, etc.
Projects supported by President Trump: such as Defi, U.S. projects, compliance concepts like LINK, AAVE, ENA, ONDO, etc., closely monitor Trump's wallet movements.
Market focus this week:
This week is the last super central bank week of 2024, with a focus on the interest rate decisions of the U.S. and Japan:
From the U.S. side: The interest rate decision will be announced at 3 AM on Thursday. Last week's CPI data met expectations, and a 25 basis point rate cut is almost a certainty, with CME's probability reaching 97%. This means that the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market have fully priced in this rate cut, so the positive impact of this news on the market is limited. The focus on Thursday will shift to Powell's speech and prospects for the January 2024 FOMC. CME predicts an 80% probability of keeping rates unchanged in January, which will be a key point of market attention.
From Japan's perspective: The market generally expects that Japan will not raise interest rates in December, which is a comfort for the market. If Japan raises interest rates, although the impact would be small, it may cause market unease, especially with the negative effects when combined with the Federal Reserve's policies. However, if Powell emphasizes that the U.S. economy is too strong to cut rates, it may actually bring some positive effects to the market, avoiding recession expectations.
In the short term, if the market digests the expectation of no interest rate cuts, a price increase remains possible, as the overall trend is still positive.
When will altcoins see a rebound?
Despite Bitcoin hitting a new high, most altcoins are currently in a pullback state, especially those on centralized exchanges, which are almost all declining. Although the total market capitalization of the crypto market has exceeded $3.9 trillion, setting a new high, most of the growth comes from Bitcoin's contribution, and the market share of altcoins continues to decline.
Although ETH has performed relatively well, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is still falling. However, recently, the inflow of funds into Ethereum's ETF has reached $850 million, setting a new historical high, and off-exchange funds are increasingly focused on Ethereum. Several institutions also predict that Ethereum may hit a historical high before the end of the year, which is not impossible. As long as the Ethereum Foundation does not 'do anything', its ATH should not be far away.
Market outlook: Altcoins will welcome a rebound.
Although Bitcoin currently dominates the market and many people have lost confidence in altcoins, I remain very optimistic about the future. From December to March, there may be more favorable factors pushing the market upward. Therefore, do not be influenced by those who always bear the market, as bearish sentiment tends to be louder in a bull market. If you are always bearish on the market, you should consider whether it's time to exit.
In recent days, altcoins have seen slight adjustments, but after the adjustments, they are likely to continue to rebound. At this time, it is not advisable to chase after those coins that have already risen very high, but rather to focus on those that have adjusted for a month or have plummeted, as these strong coins may present greater opportunities.
