Os dados da rede mostram que os detentores de Bitcoin de longo prazo estão vendendo. Vejamos se o nível atual de vendas é suficiente para levar os preços ao pico.
Os detentores de Bitcoin de longo prazo venderam muito recentemente
Em uma nova postagem na X, o analista Ali Martinez discute a tendência histórica das participações dos detentores de longo prazo em relação aos topos do Bitcoin. “Detentores de longo prazo” (LTH) são investidores BTC que detêm Bitcoin por mais de 155 dias.
LTH é uma das duas categorias principais divididas no mercado BTC com base no tempo de detenção, a outra categoria é chamada de detentores de curto prazo (STH).
Historicamente, este último provou ser capaz de conter a fraqueza do mercado, enquanto o primeiro consiste em HODLers que mal reagem aos aumentos e quedas de preços.
Therefore, sell-offs by STH are usually not noteworthy, but sell-offs by LTH are significant, as these are not particularly common events. One way to track diamond hand behavior is through their net position changes.
Net position change is an on-chain metric used to measure the total amount of Bitcoin entering or exiting the LTH group. Below is the indicator chart shared by analysts, showing the trend of its value in the history of cryptocurrency.
As shown in the chart above, the net position change of Bitcoin LTH has sharply declined to the negative territory in recent weeks, indicating that the net supply is leaving this group.
This is not the first time this indicator has shown this trend this year, as a similar situation was observed in the first quarter of this year. In the chart, Martinez emphasizes this situation and other early instances of this trend.
It seems that large-scale sell-offs by LTH typically coincide with some kind of top in cryptocurrency. 'Interestingly, in 2017 and 2021, their largest sell-offs occurred just before the last rise,' noted the analyst.
Therefore, if the current bull market exhibits a similar situation, the current LTH sell-off may actually just be the beginning of the final upward phase, leading to a cyclical top for Bitcoin.
This indicator is currently not as negative as the largest red peaks during the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, which may suggest that the top has not yet arrived. However, whether the same pattern will repeat this time remains to be seen.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has returned to the discovery pattern of its all-time high (ATH) as its price has just set a new record above $107,000.
