The value of BTC in the macro field, analogous to bonds and stocks in financial history, is the 'fuel' for a new round of human technological development; in the mid-field, it is the currency of the digital world that humanity will inevitably enter in the future, as well as an index; in the micro field, it is the regulation of new laws and compliance of coin issuance, thus siphoning off global private investment demand.
This may be the last 'grassroots' cycle belonging to the crypto industry and the last mega cycle where BTC has substantial beta gains. This means that after this cycle, BTC's beta will significantly decrease, but it does not imply that the broader token issuance market will lack opportunities for hundredfold alpha gains.
The peak of BTC's current bull market is expected to occur in Q4 2025, with a high point between $160,000 and $220,000. Before that, apart from the 'first wave' that has already occurred, there are two more significant waves in the bull market's mid-term trend.
Right now is 1999 of the internet era, indicating that after 12-18 months, when the bull market peaks, the crypto industry will face a long winter similar to the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000-2001. Of course, this is also an opportunity for reshuffling and restructuring in the industry. I am looking forward to it.
When I feel the bull market coming, it is also when my articles are produced at the highest rate.
About four years ago, at the beginning of the last bull market cycle, I wrote 'How should we invest in digital currency in 2021?'. When we discuss the entire digital currency industry, we inevitably need to first mention the value and price of BTC.
If you already believe in the value of Bitcoin, feel free to jump directly to Section 5, which discusses expectations for Bitcoin's future price movements.
One
The value of BTC, from the industrial perspective, can be divided into three levels: macro, mid, and micro. From a macro perspective, BTC represents the risk-hedging expectations of the entire human financial market and is the third type of 'financial medium' that can be capitalized after bonds and stocks in human history; from a mid-level perspective, BTC is the best 'index' of the economic output of the 'digital age' or Web3 world that humanity will inevitably enter in the future; from a micro perspective, BTC’s regulatory compliance is gradually improving, which will attract a large amount of 'traditional old money' in major countries like the US. In third-world countries, it has siphoned off local investment demands that could not be met.
On a macro level, if we view Bitcoin as a revolutionary asset in the history of human finance, then the most important thing is to understand the changes in financial history. In 'How should we invest in digital currency in 2021?' I aimed to position digital currencies from a technological historical perspective. Behind every technological revolution, important financial infrastructures and entirely new financial 'media' are produced.
Behind finance are changes in the situation. Standing at this moment, it may be the most confusing time for global political and economic situations in the past thirty years, and also the moment when the traditional financial order is the most fragile and likely to undergo a major reshuffle. Now I can no longer trace whether there were financial venues similar to the London Stock Exchange or New York Stock Exchange during the famous financial bubbles of centuries ago, such as the 'Dutch Tulip' bubble, or whether the Dutch vendors were accustomed to offline trading and merely speculating without establishing rules and order, leading to the final collapse of the bubble. However, in the long river of history, every technological innovation that humanity remembers is accompanied by a transformation in financial paradigms, which is an inevitable product of changes in the situation. These mutually causal elements complement each other and have ultimately written a significant chapter in human history. I also cannot imagine what would have happened if there had been no American Civil War that drastically changed the social landscape in the US, reshaping social classes and encouraging technological innovation to enter the real economy. Would the Second Industrial Revolution still have started in the UK but ultimately flourished in the US to become a milestone?
Meanwhile, I have a more radical view: when everyone is talking about economic recession and discussing how to find viable business models—why does business itself need a business model? Has the term 'business model' itself lost its meaning?
Here are more of my thoughts, somewhat complex, and I will elaborate on this in another article of mine (The Side Notes of Cryptocurrency Capital Theory Quartet—Philosophical Discussions on Business and Investment) as the most important part. (Related reading: 'Token Issuance, A New Paradigm of Financing' in the first part of the quartet)
[Excerpt: Discussing business models in the contemporary business and financial environment refers to the general path developed by mainstream business entities over the past hundred years, centered around the 'corporate system': expanding market size, increasing the number of employees, and eventually going public, with stock pricing based on profit*PE. This path may not hold in the future.
In today's 'social capital' (or what can be described as 'private economy'), equity enterprises may account for 95% of the value, while publicly listed companies anchored by stocks occupy most of the capital value. However, in the future, this value may increasingly exist in 'businesses' (why can't the limited partnership system work?) and 'tokens' (foundations).
Two
Let’s spend some more time discussing the industry outlook for BTC. At the end of the book I published in 2021, the first point among the eight predictions mentioned that BTC is unbeatable. Refer to the electronic version of my book (Unlocking New Codes - From Blockchain to Digital Currency) afterword four –
From the perspective of the technology industry, Web3 is an inevitable trend for the future, and Bitcoin is the core asset of the entire Web3 world, or, in economic terms, it should be called 'currency'. In ancient times, the most common 'currency' was gold. After the modern nation-state and financial system developed, state currencies became the most common 'currency'. In the future, with the advent of the digital age, all life in the virtual space of the metaverse will require a new 'currency'.
Therefore, it is meaningless for some people to keep insisting, 'Why is what you invested in a token?'. Blockchain and crypto need a '+' just like when someone asks what field you are investing in, you say, 'I want to invest in equity enterprises' or 'I want to invest in an internet enterprise'. As a unique industry, Web3, with crypto as a new market tool and financial medium, is gradually integrating with other industries—blockchain + AI = DeAI, blockchain + finance = DeFi, blockchain + entertainment/art = NFT + metaverse, blockchain + research = Desci, blockchain + physical infrastructure = Depin…
The trend is clear, but what does it have to do with us? Or rather, how can we, after seeing the trend clearly, achieve wealth appreciation?
Let's turn our attention to AI.
In recent years, the main theme of the business society has two tracks, one visible and one hidden. AI is undoubtedly a hot topic that capital has been pursuing, while crypto is bubbling underneath, gathering all kinds of legends and wealth myths, but it is also limited in many ways, making it something many can only hope to reach.
The potential of the AI market is indeed widely regarded as trillion-level, especially in the fields of generative AI, AI chips, and related infrastructure. However, for investors, while everyone believes AI is a sunrise industry and is willing to invest their money, what should they invest in? Is there currently an AI ETF index fund that comprehensively covers the AI ecosystem to effectively track industry growth?
No. In 2024, NVIDIA's stock price increased nearly threefold, while most AI-themed ETFs underperformed during the same period. Furthermore, looking ahead, NVIDIA's stock performance may not correlate positively with the overall growth of the AI industry—chip companies can never be just NVIDIA alone.
Comparison of performance between mainstream AI ETFs and NVIDIA stocks in 2024
AI is the main theme, but will there be a product that can anchor the future market value development of the AI industry, where the value of the entire AI sector will rise as much as this ETF? Just as the Dow Jones Index/S&P 500 ETF represents the development of Web0 (equity enterprises), the Nasdaq ETF represents Web1. The investment opportunities for Web2 have not been presented in index form, while the most suitable index for the value of the Web3 world or the entire future digital world of humanity is BTC.
Why is the value of the Web3 world necessarily measured in BTC?
Because, from the moment computers and the internet began to emerge, humanity was destined to spend more and more time in the virtual world rather than the real world. In the future, with VR/AR glasses, we can sit at home and visit Yellowstone Park, feel the palaces of China's Tang Dynasty, or meet friends from the other side of the earth face-to-face in virtual meeting rooms… The boundaries between reality and the virtual will become increasingly blurred; this is what the future digital world or metaverse will look like. And there, if you want to decorate the virtual space or have the digital beings there dance for you, you will need to pay—this cannot be in dollars, RMB, and certainly not in physical assets. The only thing I can think of that is most suitable and accepted by the entire digital world is Bitcoin.
I remember in the movie 'The Xinhai Revolution', Mr. Sun Yat-sen held up a 10 yuan bond: 'Upon the success of the revolution, this bond can be exchanged for 100 yuan.'
Three
Back to the present.
We live in economically stable countries where fiat currency can be trusted. However, this does not mean that the entire global financial system is as stable as the society we live in: the new president of Argentina announced the cancellation of Argentina's fiat currency system as his first act in office—after all, no one in Argentina trusts the government-issued fiat currency, so why bother? Turkey's inflation rate reached +127% in 2023, corresponding to a national digital currency ownership rate of 52%. Especially in third-world countries, as information technology infrastructure has gradually improved in recent years, traditional fiat currency mobile payments and digital currency payment methods have developed almost simultaneously. In contrast, just like in the late 2010s when China rapidly developed information technology and skipped the POS machine and bank card payment stage directly to mobile payments, many third-world countries have begun to develop digital currency payments, directly replacing the mobile payment methods of the 2.0 era, making digital currency payments a commonplace scene in everyday transactions.
This raises an interesting debate: Bitcoin has no controller. If it cannot fulfill the macroeconomic regulatory functions of fiat currencies as a form of currency or 'currency', then, in reality, the dollar is also issued by enterprises, so the so-called government macroeconomic regulation must yield to the vested interests behind it; capital power is the driving force of the world's operation. If we must say that fiat currencies have macro-regulation, then the vested interests behind Bitcoin mining are the biggest regulators.
Changes in inflation rates of major economies in recent years
Changes in Argentina's inflation rate in recent years
From a micro perspective, as the speed of capital flow accelerates, the technology and finance cycles are becoming shorter and shorter. In an environment with weak economic anti-fragility, the traditional equity market requires an 8-10 year lock-in period, and this characteristic of long-term investment causes many people to worry about liquidity issues. However, coin rights provide the possibility for early monetization, not only attracting more retail funds but also offering early investors more flexible exit expectations.
In the traditional equity market, angel rounds or early investors typically seek partial exits through equity transfers or company buybacks about five years after the establishment of the enterprise, when the company has entered a relatively mature development stage but is still some time away from an IPO or acquisition (usually 8-10 years). This model can effectively alleviate the time cost of investment, but compared to coin rights, its liquidity is evidently more constrained.
The appeal of the coin rights model lies in its ability to allow early investors to achieve quicker capital returns through token issuance or circulation, while attracting a broader market participation. This flexibility may have a profound impact on the structure of traditional equity markets. This aspect can be referenced in 'Cryptocurrency Capital Theory Part Two (Down): A Battlefield Without Gunpowder—VC or Token Fund?'.
On another note, the financial markets of most sovereign countries globally are extremely fragmented and lack liquidity, while the inherent global financial characteristics of crypto have greatly attracted these funds, including those from South Korea, Argentina, Russia, etc. Moreover, in some Southeast Asian countries led by Vietnam, the stock market development has not kept pace with the wealth accumulation speed of the middle class, leading these emerging classes to bypass local financial markets and directly transition to crypto. Against the backdrop of global digital currency compliance and integration with mainstream financial markets, the investment demand for local assets from these countries cannot be satisfied by the weak local financial infrastructure—there are over 2500 listed companies on the South Korean main board market (KOSPI) and the KOSDAQ, but 80% of these companies have a market value of less than $100 million, and their daily trading volumes are negligible. In contrast, the digital currency market, which absorbs global retail investor funds, offers the most abundant liquidity, making it the best target for their participation in investments.
Current market value and trading volume of Doge
Current market value and trading volume of Samsung
Note: As seen in the chart, Doge's current market value is approximately $60B, while Samsung's market value is about $234B, roughly four times that of Doge. However, the 24h trading volume of Doge has reached $5.5B, thousands of times that of Samsung.
In the strategic hub of the global digital currency market—the United States—2025 may witness a new transformation of the cryptocurrency legal system. The two most important bills—FIT21 and DAMS—will impact the future of the crypto circle. These two blockchain bills, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), are centered on treating token issuance (coin issuance) as commodity trading rather than securities issuance, thereby placing it under CFTC jurisdiction. Considering that these bills were proposed by the Republican Party, while the current SEC Chair Gary Gensler represents the Democratic stance, the bills face significant resistance. However, if Trump is re-elected, the possibility of these bills passing will significantly increase due to Republican control.
To explain this bill in simple terms, it essentially legalizes coin issuance as a commodity regulated by the CFTC, which can greatly promote the enthusiasm for coin financing. Enterprises can legally and compliantly raise funds through coin issuance, attracting more capital into the crypto circle. Moreover, with a stable channel for long-term compliant development, more people will remain engaged in this industry long after making money. Most importantly, after the US takes the lead in implementing this bill, it will formally unveil the global digital currency financial market and blockchain technology market, leading to competition among nations to 'grab projects' and 'recruit talent'. In the fully globalized and freely flowing crypto circle, further developments may occur if US policies become more favorable; coin issuance may no longer be a gray industry but rather a prestigious financial innovation, prompting founders currently residing in relatively crypto-friendly countries like Singapore and Switzerland to migrate rapidly.
Four
Looking back at 2016, when the types of crypto in the world could be counted on one hand, BTC was like a game currency, directly usable with RMB for 'top-ups' on exchanges. We, the native inhabitants of the crypto circle, had high hopes for the future. (Refer to the end of 'How should we invest in digital currency in 2021?' the first part of the quartet)
That is also my dream.
Originally, my plan was to achieve these goals in 8-10 years.
However, we only took four years.
It was also at that time that I had a new dream—since Bitcoin as a monetary asset has been gradually accepted by mainstream society, then other digital currencies, or tokens, should also play the role of digital commodities beyond just digital equity, thus generating utility in the future digital world for humanity to better enter the digital space.
Oh right, this thing later got a new name—NFT.
'Digital commodities in the era of the metaverse' is my definition of the ultimate fate of NFTs, representing a true realization of 'internet era commodities' through Web3 and digitization, thus being the most crucial link for mass adoption.
It is precisely because of this that I firmly decided to build the NFT industry at the beginning of 2021. In my series of articles 'Path to the Future—Five Parts of Web3', I made predictions about its future.
Five
Of course, the most intuitively attractive aspect, or rather, what will make more people willing to read my articles, ultimately relies on BTC's price increase.
It's time to get to the point. It's necessary to mention my prediction for BTC's prices: the peak of this cycle will occur at the end of 2025, with a reasonable range of $160,000 to $220,000. After that, in 2026, I suggest everyone to stay out of the market and recuperate.
In my paper written on January 1, 2019, 'Bitcoin Valuation Model Under the Equilibrium of the Miner Market—Based on Derivative Pricing Theory', I discussed the bottom of the cycle from 2018 to 2021.
And the bottom of the cycle I mentioned in 2022 will be from 2022 to 2025.
From the current perspective, the entire crypto circle is at a critical crossroads. Today's digital currency industry resembles the internet industry at the turn of the century; within the next 1-2 years, a bubble burst is not far off. With the passing of crypto-friendly laws like the US FIT21, and the completion of compliance regulations for assets like coin rights, a large number of traditional old money, which previously lacked understanding of crypto and even looked down upon it, will begin to accept BTC and allocate 1%-10%. However, after that, if blockchain and digital currencies cannot gradually integrate with traditional industries and truly usher in the 'blockchain + industry' transformation, similar to how the internet industry transformed consumption, social interaction, media, etc., I really can’t see any new capital entering this industry, nor any reason for it to present amazing growth opportunities again. The DeFi of 2020, the NFT and metaverse of 2021 were all correct directions and sparked a wave of innovation at that time. However, throughout 2024, although BTC set new highs, the entire blockchain industry had no significant innovations to discuss; the market was only filled with more memes and Layer 1, 2, 3, without new 'business concept innovations'. Moreover, from what I can see in 2025, the atmosphere of the entire industry leads me to hold a pessimistic view on the emergence of milestone 'business concept innovations'.
As the water rises, boats rise with it. Currently, with the deluge, small rafts proliferate, and boatmen are competing to paddle faster, even mocking the clunky, machine-powered iron ships. But when the tide recedes, the wooden ships will run aground; only those with sustained machine power can set sail and meet the ocean.
Furthermore, let me make an interesting prediction: a sign that the crypto bubble has reached its peak will be when Buffett, the world's biggest Bitcoin opponent, starts to change his tune and even participates in the industry. The phased victory of a revolution often marks the moment when crises are most lurking.
We can compare the current crypto circle to the internet era of 1999. After a rapid surge towards normalization, the digital currency industry may face severe adjustments starting from the end of 2025 due to a massive bubble. Looking back, the internet industry welcomed the IPO of Netscape in December 1995, which sparked a market frenzy with Yahoo’s listing in April 1996. On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq index peaked at 5408.6 points. However, shortly after, the bubble burst rapidly, and by 2001 the market entered a winter period. Although the broad winter period lasted until 2004, the actual low point was in October 2002 when the Nasdaq index nearly fell below 1000 points, marking the industry's lowest valley from a financial perspective.
In 2020, MicroStrategy's purchase of BTC successfully drove up the company's stock value, achieving a significant stock-coin linkage effect for the first time. By February 2021, Tesla announced its purchase of Bitcoin, marking the entry of giants into the market. These historical moments inevitably evoke memories of the '1995-1996' period in the blockchain industry when the internet wave first began.
Looking ahead, I believe that by the end of 2025, the price of Bitcoin may reach a long-term peak, but by early 2027, it may hit a new low. Once the FIT21 bill is passed, it could trigger a wave of public coin issuance, reminiscent of the unprecedented prosperity of the '.com' era.
If the threshold for token financing is reduced to almost zero, so that even ordinary people can easily issue their own tokens like high school students learn to create a website, then the limited capital in the market will be rapidly diluted by the influx of various tokens. In such an environment, the final wave belonging to token issuers may not last more than three months. Subsequently, due to the imbalance of supply and demand in the market and capital exhaustion, the industry will inevitably face a comprehensive collapse.
However, before that, in the next 12 months, we still have a potential beta increase of nearly 2 times for BTC, along with countless early coin opportunities for ordinary people due to the global liquidity gathering, which can yield hundreds or thousands of times in a very short period—why not participate?
Looking back at the tumultuous past of the internet industry, which was often criticized by the media as a 'bubble'. Today, the Nasdaq index has broken through the 20,000-point mark. Looking back, what seemed like a peak in 2000 is now just a small hill. Even entering the internet industry in 2000 and persevering until today has been one of the most correct choices.
As for BTC, it’s just another little hill.
It has been 3202 days since I bought my first BTC on March 7, 2016.
I still remember the price displayed when I clicked the mouse: 2807 RMB, which is just under $400.
Many people have asked me how high I think BTC can ultimately rise.
This question is meaningless. The price of gold has been hitting new highs these days and years.
A meaningful question is how high can BTC's price rise before a certain point in time?
Let's wait and see.
Key point: The bull is still here! The bull is still here!! The bull is still here!!!
The season of altcoins is approaching, and Jiu Ge has carefully selected several coins with a hundredfold potential for loyal fans. Please continue to follow and join Jiu Ge in capturing the next wealth growth point! Keep up with Lao Jiu's car! Continue to feast and profit!! Get on board with 888!!!
