According to the schedule, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on December 19th. According to CME’s 'Fed Watch' data, the market is basically certain that there will be a 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut, with a probability of 98.6%. This will be the third rate cut in 2024, and the market has long been prepared.

However, a 25 basis point rate cut is almost a foregone conclusion, and the focus is on Powell's speech. Analysts generally believe that this time may show a 'hawkish rate cut', meaning a rate cut while signaling a pause, which has a huge impact. Analysts from BNP Paribas stated that the Federal Reserve may use this to convey a pause in rate cuts, weakening expectations for further cuts next year. This is a positive for the crypto market, and the market is likely to take this opportunity for a rally.

What will be the next trend of Bitcoin?

①Will Bitcoin drop? Is there a possibility of a waterfall?

Currently, it seems unlikely that there will be a waterfall, or signs of continuous decline. It still has to rise, with the target roughly between 108,000 and 110,000. The exact amount cannot be measured. Therefore, a pullback is a buying point.

②Where is the right entry point?

The recent support area is between 102,600 and 103,300; here you can wait for an opportunity to place long orders. As for the specific amount, let's discuss it in detail in the core.

③Can I short at this position?

The current price trend has the possibility of high-level fluctuations, so both high shorts and low longs can be executed. However, unless you reach the target area, going short is just a brief short; you want to start feeling the peak unless your leverage is low enough.

④Will there be a big drop this month?

I don't believe the price will only rise and not fall. Moreover, from this moment on, the higher it goes, the higher the probability of a temporary peak. This month, I still insist that there will be a significant pullback, which you refer to as a big drop. Of course, it probably won’t be this week. At least not in the next few days.

Christmas is a risk, as the US stock market will be closed, and without market makers, BTC may not be good. If BTC drops, then altcoins may look bad. Therefore, the position control that has been suggested all along, holding positions in short-term waves, should consider reducing positions around the 20th of December to maximize profits.

Christmas won't affect the overall trend. After New Year's Day, with Trump officially taking office and the new SEC chairman, a new rise is definitely continuing. Without negative data and news, there won't be any problems!

The next six months: Bitcoin's golden time for free swimming.

According to the current market trend and macro environment analysis, Bitcoin may enter a 'free swimming' phase in the next six months. This means there is still enough space for participation and layout in the market, especially for long-term investors; this is an ideal time window.

During this period, you can gradually allocate Bitcoin through a diversified investment strategy, taking advantage of market volatility to gain more opportunities. Whether through regular fixed investments or appropriately increasing positions at suitable times, you can achieve considerable returns in the upcoming market.

Let me make a prediction:

In January, ETH will officially break its ATH, along with BTC surpassing 110,000, and ETH will gradually strengthen, with altcoin trends erupting one after another!

The focus of this round of the market is in the first quarter of next year, which may even determine the upper limit of funds in this bull market. Before that, the weakness is just superficial, with opportunities and risks coexisting, whether you can seize it all depends on yourself.