Escrito por: Beosin
Com a popularidade global das criptomoedas e o rápido crescimento dos utilizadores de criptomoedas no Sudeste Asiático, os fluxos de fundos em cadeia na região tornaram-se cada vez mais frequentes e complexos. A fim de obter uma compreensão mais profunda das características do fluxo de fundos na cadeia no Sudeste Asiático, riscos financeiros potenciais e conexões com indústrias ilegais, Beosin baseou-se em 10.000 amostras de endereços de blockchain amostradas de 2020 até o presente (como carteiras pessoais do Sudeste Asiático /Usuários de intercâmbio do Sudeste Asiático, etc.), Esta análise aprofundada foi realizada. Ao rastrear e rotular diferentes tipos de caminhos de fluxo de capital arriscados, descobrimos que o grau de risco envolvido nos padrões de circulação de criptoativos era maior do que o esperado. Este relatório não só revela os riscos do uso de criptomoedas no Sudeste Asiático, mas também explora as razões por trás deste fenómeno a partir de um nível macro e faz recomendações relevantes.
Overview of the Southeast Asia cryptocurrency market
In recent years, the acceptance and popularity of cryptocurrencies in Southeast Asia have significantly increased.
As an emerging market, Southeast Asia has unique characteristics in terms of economic structure, policy environment, and user behavior, with the following aspects being particularly noticeable:
1、Rapid user growth: Southeast Asia has a high proportion of young population, coupled with the popularization of mobile internet, resulting in a rapid increase in the number of cryptocurrency users in this region. It is estimated that there are tens of millions of cryptocurrency users in this region.
2、Strong demand for cross-border payments: The number of cross-border laborers in Southeast Asia is large, and cryptocurrencies provide them with a convenient means of cross-border payment, thus being widely used.
3、Inconsistent regulatory environments: The regulatory policies for virtual currencies vary across Southeast Asian countries, with some countries supporting the legalization of cryptocurrencies, but most regions have not yet formed a clear regulatory framework, leading to certain compliance risks in capital flows.
Sample Analysis and Key Findings
Chart: Fund flow diagram
Chart: Distribution of addresses flowing to Web3 wallets
1. The situation of free capital flow
Among the 10,000 blockchain addresses analyzed, approximately 45.23% of the funds circulated freely on the public chain through decentralized wallets, demonstrating a high degree of liquidity and decentralization. The total amount of freely flowing funds reached $1.484 billion, indicating that decentralized trading methods have become mainstream among users in Southeast Asia.
2. Associations with the black and gray industries
Among these addresses, over $110 million in funds directly flowed to addresses related to the black and gray industries, accounting for over 12%. Further tracking of the remaining addresses' fund flows revealed that through secondary or multiple transactions, some addresses also formed indirect links with the black and gray industries, raising the proportion of risk addresses associated with the black and gray industries to 16.82%. This means that among tens of millions of cryptocurrency users in Southeast Asia, there may be millions of users who have indirect or direct financial transaction risks with the black and gray industries.
Chart: Associations with the black market
Analysis of capital flows and risks in the black and gray industries
1、Typification of black and gray industry addresses
Beosin categorizes addresses closely related to the black and gray industries into three main categories and 44 subcategories through risk labels, with the high-risk categories mainly including:
Mixing services: Mainly used for anonymizing fund flows
Underground banks: Used for cross-border illegal fund dispatch and money laundering
Scam platforms: Involve false investments, Ponzi schemes, killing foreign investments, and killing pig schemes, etc.
Among these high-risk address types, over 240 specific entities related to the black and gray industries are involved.
2、High-risk capital flow phenomena
Research results show that certain specific categories of capital flows are particularly significant:
Over $10 million in funds directly flowed into addresses related to underground banks, with transaction frequencies totaling in the thousands.
Approximately $11 million in funds clearly flowed to online gambling platforms.
Over $22 million in funds were directed to scam platforms.
Such capital flows reveal the complexity and concealment of black and gray industry activities, particularly under the anonymity and cross-border characteristics of cryptocurrencies, which allow criminals to frequently conduct illegal fund transfers and money laundering activities.
Chart: Funds flowing to the black market
Capital inflow situation of sanctioned platforms
1、Proportion of capital inflow to sanctioned platforms
Among the funds directly associated with the black and gray industries, approximately 53.49% flowed to sanctioned platforms, and the number of related transactions was even double that flowing to underground banks, with a total value exceeding $55 million, indicating that sanctioned platforms remain the primary inflow of high-risk funds.
2、Case Analysis: Tornado Cash
As a commonly used mixing tool, Tornado Cash received over $54 million in funds during this study, accounting for 97.84% of all sanctioned platform capital inflows. However, since the U.S. Treasury Department listed Tornado Cash as a sanctioned entity in August 2022, its trading volume has significantly declined, showing the effective suppression effect of sanctions on its capital inflow.
Chart: Trends and proportions of funds flowing to Tornado Cash
Macroeconomic risk analysis and cause exploration
1、Anonymity and high liquidity of cryptocurrencies: The anonymity of cryptocurrencies makes it difficult to trace illegal funds when they flow on-chain. Even if there are technical means to label risk addresses, funds can still disguise their flow through mixing and other technical means, thus facilitating money laundering activities.
2、Lack of regulatory systems in Southeast Asia: The cryptocurrency regulatory measures in various Southeast Asian countries are still inadequate, leading to increased risks of cross-border capital flows. Some regions still take a wait-and-see attitude toward cryptocurrencies and have not adopted proactive regulatory measures, providing space for capital flows in the black and gray industries.
3、Socioeconomic Environment: Some countries in Southeast Asia have a lower level of economic development and a significant wealth gap, leading many scammers and online gambling operations to use this region as a base, primarily attracting foreign participants.
4、Technical challenges in regulation: Due to technical and architectural limitations, cryptocurrency exchanges, wallet service providers, and decentralized platforms often find it difficult to effectively monitor and investigate the risks behind transactions. Decentralized platforms particularly lack direct control over transaction data, making it impossible to identify malicious behavior or risks such as money laundering in a timely manner. Although some centralized platforms attempt to strengthen monitoring through KYC and AML measures, cross-chain transactions and anonymous technologies still complicate the tracking of capital flows, increasing security risks.
Conclusion and Recommendations
The analysis of on-chain capital flow in Southeast Asia indicates a high level of security risk in cryptocurrency usage in this region. To effectively reduce the risk of illegal capital flows on-chain, Beosin recommends the following measures:
1、Strengthening regulatory mechanisms: Governments should formulate and implement comprehensive cryptocurrency regulatory policies, combat illegal on-chain capital activities through international cooperation, and formulate clear virtual currency regulatory frameworks based on different national conditions.
2、Enhancing users' risk identification capabilities: Strengthening anti-fraud education for ordinary users, helping them understand on-chain risks, and improving their ability to identify and prevent risks associated with black and gray industry funds.
3、Promoting Technological Innovation: Actively research and apply on-chain tracking and anti-money laundering technologies, using big data analysis, artificial intelligence, and other technological means to accurately identify and combat high-risk fund flows.
4、Establishing a multi-party collaborative mechanism: Encourage cryptocurrency exchanges, wallet service providers, and relevant institutions in Southeast Asia to collaborate, strengthen information sharing and risk joint prevention, and improve on-chain security levels.
As one of the regions with the greatest potential for cryptocurrency development, Southeast Asia still faces the challenge of capital flow risks in the future. Beosin will continue to invest resources and technology, collaborate with various sectors, and work to build a safe, transparent, and compliant cryptocurrency ecosystem. By strengthening regulation, enhancing user awareness of security, and promoting innovation in technological means, we hope to gradually reduce illegal capital flows on-chain and promote the healthy development of the digital economy in Southeast Asia.