According to BlockBeats news, on December 16, Bitfinex released a report stating that 'since the bear market low of $15,487 in November 2022, Bitcoin has risen over 573%, and the price is up 130% year-to-date. The current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, primarily driven by ETF and spot accumulation. Historical data indicates that we are in the mid-cycle, and the market may peak in the third to fourth quarter of 2025, approximately 450 days after the halving in April 2024.'
Indicators such as MVRV, NUPL, and bull-bear cycle metrics suggest that we are still in a bull market phase, but far from reaching overly optimistic peaks. The Pi cycle top and four-year moving average models predict potential cycle top prices between $145,000 and $189,000. Historically, diminishing returns have been moderating the explosive gains seen in Bitcoin's earlier cycles.
Our view is that any adjustments in 2025 will remain mild, benefiting from the influx of institutional funds.
Halving effect: Historically, the year following a halving tends to see the strongest rebound.
Cycle target: The minimum price estimate for mid-2025 is $145,000, potentially reaching $200,000 under favorable conditions.
While fluctuations are expected in the first quarter of 2025, the overall trend points to further price increases, supported by ETF, institutional adoption, and the growing importance of Bitcoin as a global asset. However, investors should remain vigilant for signs of overbuying as Bitcoin approaches the cycle top.
