Let's take a historical perspective to review Bitcoin's bull market. You will notice that Bitcoin's price movements exhibit a clear 'cyclicality', especially around a four-year cycle. In each cycle, Bitcoin experiences a process of price increases, corrections, and then increases again. For example, the bull market from October 2020 to October 2021 is a typical case, where it also experienced a 50% crash.
In the above chart, I started drawing at the beginning of October 2021 during the bull market, up to the peak of the first wave of the bull market, which corresponds to one cycle line period (one vertical grid). We can also see that the price during the 2021 bull market just reached its peak in the second cycle vertical grid, randomly opening a new round of bear market.
We can take the time cycle of the 2020 bull market and shift it to 2024 to see if the current market is operating according to a similar time cycle. Through this method, we can predict that Bitcoin may welcome its first peak in 2025 (based on historical data, this time point is approximately February 9, 2025).
February 9, 2025, also coincides with the twelfth day of the Lunar New Year. Although history does not repeat itself, everyone in the crypto circle should pay attention to risk control during the Spring Festival. Don't let someone take your home~
At the beginning of 2024, I told many friends that I estimated it would reach 80 by the end of the year. By September, when various data looked good, I said it might reach $100,000~ and it really did! Praise me~
Next, let's take a look at this wave of the bull market in 2024. The current price of Bitcoin is already close to $105,000, but it has not yet reached the first peak. According to the time cycle line calculations, a price peak may come around February 9, 2025—this will be the first peak of the bull market.
But you may ask: If the price reaches a peak, will there be a significant correction like in 2021? In 2021, the price dropped from $64,000 to $29,000, a decline of 50%. Will this happen again?
Although history may not necessarily repeat itself, if we look at the timeline, corrections during the bull market are still possible. After a correction, how much can the price rise? No one can provide a definitive answer, but based on historical experience, prices generally welcome new increases after corrections.
Additionally, we should note that the cycles of the bull market are not fixed. During this cycle, we see that Bitcoin's price has had a longer upward space, which means that the bull market is likely to continue until around August 2025, or even further.
In addition to time cycle lines, we can also analyze the progress of the bull market through some blockchain indicators. For example, the MVRV ratio, which measures the relationship between Bitcoin's market capitalization and actual trading value. According to Grayscale research, the current MVRV ratio is 2.6, indicating that the market may still be in the mid-stage of the bull market, with room for future increases. Additionally, on-chain liquidity for Bitcoin is also very important. On-chain liquidity refers to the activity of circulating Bitcoin. In the past four bull markets, this indicator exceeded 60%. Currently, it is around 54%, which also means that as more funds flow into the market, the price of Bitcoin may continue to rise.
Of course, we cannot ignore the impact of Bitcoin miners. The behavior of miners reflects the overall health of the market. If the total value held by miners reaches a certain level, prices may start to decline. However, the current miner market cap to heatup ratio is about 6, which is lower than historical peaks, indicating that we are still some distance from the market top.
In addition to Bitcoin itself, the performance of altcoins can also give us some insights. In the later stages of the bull market, Bitcoin's market dominance usually declines. Now, we are already seeing a trend of Bitcoin's dominance retreating, indicating that other cryptocurrencies may begin to strengthen. For example, there has been a significant change in the funding rates between Bitcoin and altcoins recently. A rise in funding rates means a large amount of leveraged capital in the market chasing price increases. This phenomenon also aligns with the characteristics of the late bull market, so we need to be wary of potential market fluctuations.
After talking so much, let's summarize:
Bitcoin is still in the mid-stage of the bull market, and the price may continue to rise until around August 2025.
Of course, the market is very volatile, and we cannot completely rely on historical data to predict the future. However, based on the current trend, 2025 may be an important node. Therefore, for cryptocurrency investors, it is crucial to have good risk control. Although we cannot predict where the price will rise to, historical patterns and current market signals can help us formulate more reasonable investment strategies.
We cannot predict the direction of the price, but we can wait for it on its inevitable path.
Thank you to all the friends who see this, love you all ❤️
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