Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Autor | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
O recente lançamento do MOVE e do ME permitiu que todos vissem o entusiasmo das massas e a ferocidade das novas moedas no mercado altista. Olhando mais para trás, por exemplo, a nova moeda OL em OKX deixou uma impressão profunda. Após uma breve correção após uma abertura alta, ela continuou a subir como uma "escavadeira".
Então, a nova estratégia cambial já não é a mesma num contexto de mercado em alta e não há necessidade de vender tão cedo quanto a abertura do mercado, como antes? Odaily analisará neste artigo as novas moedas lançadas recentemente em diversas exchanges para tentar responder a essa pergunta.
Basic situation description
This article selected new tokens from Binance, OKX, Bybit, and the entire network, limited to the past two months.
The entire network includes MOVE and ME;
Binance includes SCR, USUAL (pre-market);
OKX includes MAJOR, MORPHO, MEMEFI, OL, and X (in fact, many were issued together but do not include Binance, etc.);
Bybit chose MOZ (Lumoz) and XION.
In terms of time, the closing prices of the above tokens have been recorded for 5 minutes, 1 hour, 24 hours, and 7 days, as well as the current price (as of December 16 at 15:00 Beijing time).
Then compare the price changes of each token, such as the hourly closing price relative to the 5-minute closing price, to determine whether it is the 'opening high'.
Does the opening high still exist?
The price change data for each token is shown in the figure below. Among them, the hourly closing price relative to the 5-minute closing price has an average decline of 14%, while the 24-hour closing price has an average decline of 7%.
It can be seen that in the short term, the opening 5 minutes is still the high point. If tokens can be obtained within this time frame, it is still recommended to sell.
There are eight tokens that have been listed for 7 days. These tokens have a 7-day closing price that has declined by 8.7% relative to the 5-minute closing price, indicating that the mid-term situation remains unchanged, and the opening is still a high point.
Will extending the time frame lead to any changes?
The current price relative to the 5-minute closing price shows an average increase of 25% for 11 tokens, but after excluding OL, it turns into an average decline of 21%, with the decline further expanding.
The opening is still at its peak
In summary, for most tokens, the opening is still likely to be the highest point. A bull market may bring a higher opening price, rather than long-term price increases. Moreover, a month or two may not be enough to eliminate the overly enthusiastic emotions at the opening that lead to excessively high prices. According to statistical patterns, it is still recommended to sell if tokens can be obtained within 5 minutes.
Binance new token VANA price estimate
Based on the Binance Launchpool data from the past 21 periods, we estimate that the price of VANA is 15.9 USDT, corresponding to an FDV of 1.911 billion USD and an initial circulating market value of 479 million USD.
The algorithm is: the average annualized return for the past 21 periods is 96%. Assuming this period is also 96%; based on the average number of BNB invested and the BNB price of 726 USDT over the past 21 periods, we can derive that to achieve the same annualized return, the price of VANA needs to reach:
16973725 × 726 ÷ 4080000 × 2 ÷ 365 × 96% = 15.93
