Com o fluxo constante de fundos spot de ETF, o Bitcoin finalmente voltou para US$ 100.000 e ultrapassou US$ 106.000 hoje cedo, estabelecendo um novo recorde, e o Ethereum também ficou em US$ 4.000. No entanto, o aumento geral do mercado foi menor do que o dos tokens DeFi. .Não é óbvio que os fundos tenham sido gradualmente transferidos das moedas da cadeia principal para os tokens relacionados ao DeFi, e o assunto do relaxamento regulatório está se formando rapidamente.
As entradas à vista de ETF ainda são a principal força motriz para a alta do Bitcoin. Na semana passada, exceto nos dias de negociação de sexta-feira, houve quatro dias consecutivos de entradas líquidas de mais de US$ 200 milhões em um único dia, mostrando que as empresas de fundos de Wall Street continuam. para comprar Bitcoin em resposta às políticas favoráveis às criptomoedas de Trump, juntamente com o último índice de preços de novembro mantendo uma taxa de crescimento anual de 2,7%, não há problemas no ambiente geral. a próxima previsão do PIB dos EUA.
It is worth noting that this trend may continue after Trump takes office because many hedge funds were previously resistant to buying Bitcoin. However, this sentiment is slowly changing, and the overall bullish atmosphere will have a certain persistence. For example, BlackRock publicly suggested that investors should allocate 2% of their multi-asset portfolios to Bitcoin, indicating that IBIT has brought substantial profits to the company, and the market response has been enthusiastic.
Next, more fund companies are deciding to engage in Bitcoin ETF distribution and asset custody. We are also seeing more investment institutions showing interest in Bitcoin. The U.S. Bitcoin ETF has been launched for nearly a year, with cumulative inflows exceeding $50.5 billion. On the other hand, companies continue to buy Bitcoin as a value investment tool. The most notable is MicroStrategy, which this week purchased 21,550 BTC again at an average price of $98,782, bringing its total holdings to 423,650 BTC.
We expect that the Bitcoin spot ETF will continue to maintain net inflows in the future. There is no need to worry about funds from Wall Street buying in; however, the cryptocurrency trading market appears to be more active now. The funds from the broader market have rapidly overflowed into mainchain coins, small and medium-sized cryptocurrencies, and DeFi tokens. Next, let us discuss the overflow trend of DeFi tokens.
A. On December 10, Binance CEO CZ stated: China may establish a Bitcoin reserve.
Former Binance CEO Zhao Changpeng (CZ) stated at the Bitcoin MENA conference held in Abu Dhabi on December 9 that he believes China may become one of the countries adopting strategic Bitcoin reserves, potentially emulating the plan proposed by the soon-to-be-inaugurated Trump administration. However, he believes that 'smaller countries' may adopt Bitcoin reserves first, but this change may occur slowly.
However, he also mentioned that due to the lack of transparency from the Chinese government, its stance on cryptocurrencies is harder to predict. However, Trump has not yet taken office, and the strategic Bitcoin reserve plan has not yet been launched. If this really happens, we will be able to observe the reactions of other countries, meaning that when the U.S. starts to genuinely establish a Bitcoin reserve, it could trigger other countries to begin to emulate.
He also added that there are currently no signs of the Chinese government hoarding Bitcoin, but he believes that establishing a strategic reserve is 'inevitable.' However, he thinks the Chinese government will first hoard Bitcoin before announcing its strategic plans, rather than announcing the policy beforehand. CZ believes they must do this at some point because Bitcoin is the only 'hard asset.'
B. On December 11, U.S. SEC Commissioner called for the government to reshape the regulatory environment of the cryptocurrency industry.
U.S. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, in an interview with Fox Business, outlined three priorities aimed at addressing regulatory barriers in the development of the crypto industry. She first called for the termination of the controversial 'Chokepoint 2.0' initiative, which restricts the crypto industry from accessing banking and financial services. For example, allowing banks to provide custody services to crypto exchanges or DeFi companies will enable the crypto industry to develop smoothly.
Furthermore, she emphasized the need to clarify the SEC's regulatory scope, resolve disputes over which crypto tokens fall under securities, and allow non-securities assets to be exempt from unnecessary regulation. This will also promote more crypto tokens to be converted into spot ETFs for trading. Finally, she called for regulators to work with crypto companies to openly discuss how existing rules apply and where adjustments are needed to facilitate transparency and swift progress.
From this, we can see that the U.S. is pushing for the normalization of cryptocurrency industry regulation. In the past, many banks did not allow financial services for crypto companies. In the future, as U.S. regulation loosens, more banks will engage with crypto companies and provide fiat custody, transfers, and financing services. Stablecoin-related companies are expected to benefit from a more relaxed regulatory environment, with early beneficiaries likely being PayPal, Paxos, and USDC.
C. On December 12, Ray Dalio called on investors to abandon debt assets and invest in Bitcoin.
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, shared his current investment strategy at the Abu Dhabi Financial Week. He advocates that investors should abandon traditional debt assets and shift their funds towards hard assets like gold and Bitcoin. The main reason is that the global economy is facing unprecedented debt crises. For example, debt levels in major economies, including the U.S. and China, are soaring to unprecedented heights, and they may soon fall into default risk.
In the future, only 'debt, currency, economy, and technological innovation' will be the key driving forces of world development, rather than investing in debt assets. He emphasized that he wants to steer clear of debt assets like bonds and instead hold hard currencies like gold and Bitcoin. Unlike a few years ago when he criticized Bitcoin, Dalio has now become an advocate, especially as Bitcoin first broke through $100,000.
He suggested that investors should not overly focus on the daily ups and downs of news but should think strategically from a global perspective. In the future, global governments will continue to loosen monetary policy for economic development. The value of debt assets will only decline with inflation, and governments also hide the risk of technical defaults. In contrast, companies capable of generating cash flow and technological innovation, along with the limited number of Bitcoins, are better investment targets.
The regulatory environment is expected to loosen, with funds shifting toward DeFi.
The biggest news recently is that World Liberty Financial (WLFI), under Trump, has begun injecting funds into DeFi projects. Originally, WLFI was established in September this year, with a business model providing lending and interest yield services for crypto assets. However, after Tron founder Justin Sun announced on November 25 that he would invest $30 million in WLFI, becoming the largest investor and joining its advisory team, the project quickly transformed into a more aggressive investment company.
Recently, WLFI purchased various cryptocurrencies with $12 million in USDC funds, including $10 million in Ethereum (ETH), $1 million in Chainlink (LINK), and $1 million in Aave (AAVE), which has led market investors to rush to buy previously undervalued DeFi tokens. Although the amount is not large compared to other investment institutions that typically invest tens of millions of dollars, since it is a DeFi project led by the Trump family, it undoubtedly sends a strong message to the market - 'DeFi regulation may be significantly relaxed.'
WLFI previously announced a partnership with Chainlink, stating that it would use its price oracle and cross-chain technology, while choosing to establish a lending DeFi protocol on the Aave v3 mainchain. Although the investment amount is not large, the support from Trump has led to a surge of over 50% in both tokens, and it is anticipated that funds will rotate back from Bitcoin to DeFi tokens.
Taking LINK as an example, according to Santiment's analysis, the price increase of LINK is mainly attributed to a significant accumulation by whales. In the past two months, the number of wallets holding over 100,000 LINK has increased by 5.69 million, while wallets holding less than 100,000 have decreased by 5.67 million. This pattern typically indicates potential for more price growth in the future and shows that major investors have already completed their positioning, waiting for the news from WLFI to trigger a price increase.
In addition to investment news, market analysts are looking forward to the SEC further loosening its regulation of DeFi-related companies and allowing these companies to obtain banking services. This point has already been voiced by SEC commissioners, who hope to assist crypto companies in obtaining financial services from U.S. banks, including account custody, transfers, and related financial operations. This suggests that the innovative space for DeFi companies under Trump’s new policies will be larger.
The market is focusing on positive news and policies and is redeploying funds into DeFi tokens, such as Uniswap, SUI, and other decentralized trading agreements that have shown astonishing growth. However, we believe that cryptocurrencies have only just begun to enter DeFi. If the broader market does not decline, there is a great opportunity for DeFi tokens to outperform the broader market. Currently, it is still just the beginning of the DeFi rally, which is worth investors' attention and expectation.
