Slowly reaching the top may be difficult until May, at most extending to late April; quickly, it may peak during the Spring Festival after Trump takes office on January 20.
Even if there is a peak crash and the bull market ends, Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a 50% drop within three months or an 80% drop within a year as it has in the past. In the future, Bitcoin will become the preferred choice for large funds on Wall Street, institutional ETFs, listed company reserves, and foreign exchange reserves of small to medium-sized countries, while also being viewed as a store of value by the wealthy and corporations (appreciating 2-5 times every four years, which is quite attractive). Bitcoin has gradually moved away from novice retail investors.
However, the crash of altcoins may be even more severe. Once a downward trend forms, major holders and institutions will certainly sell off altcoins (most of which are nearly worthless), with a significant portion of the funds converting to Bitcoin to avoid potential risks associated with USDT (though the risk is relatively small). Institutions and seasoned players typically hold both Bitcoin and USDT during a bear market (those with firm beliefs may hold only Bitcoin throughout, but they will not hold only USDT). Missing out on Bitcoin's long-term surge also constitutes a risk. If one fails to buy back in time after liquidating, they may miss out. If one realizes a bear market is coming but is unable to liquidate in time, they can exchange altcoins with BTC/X trading pairs for Bitcoin to mitigate risk (Bitcoin will eventually rebound, while holding altcoins long-term may lead to despair).
Currently, there are still 2-4 months until the peak. Frequent operations such as selling too early, buying too high after chasing, and missing out on Bitcoin's surge after liquidating all contain significant risks. For ordinary investors, one should focus on buying at the bottom and selling at the top (both buying and selling can be done in batches) to grasp the long-term trend, achieving 70-80% returns. Attempting to eat from start to finish or pursuing excess returns after a pullback often backfires.
In the current euphoric phase of the bull market, consider investing in the primary market; even small funds can yield substantial returns. Recently, I observed an Ethereum project called puppies, related to Musk's concepts, with promising prospects and a hundredfold potential!
