Já se passou mais de um mês desde que o mercado altista subiu de 49k para 60k e a correção iniciada em 4 de novembro o BTC subiu de 60k para 100k.
A maioria das moedas também subiu de 3 a 5 vezes desde o fundo.
Pessoalmente, sinto que esta é apenas a primeira fase do mercado altista, especialmente se olharmos para os padrões históricos do BTC e olharmos para a 19ª temporada e a 21ª temporada, a pior e a 21ª temporada devem estar relativamente próximas.
O primeiro líder neste ciclo desde o final de 23 de outubro é o SOL e o meme do SOL. Desde o ano passado, surgiram os cães dourados do sol PNUT, ACT e o BONK do ano passado.
Ok, voltando ao tema, basta olhar para o meme atual que começou em 4 de novembro e a primeira onda de memes está quase acabando por volta do dia 20. Há também uma regra prática de que todas as moedas que lideram a alta no mercado altista irão. cair primeiro.
From a capital perspective, market makers also need to realize profits. You can Google what market makers are; I won't elaborate here, and I can't explain it well. Personally, I focus on technical K-line analysis.
The overall market is considered healthy; pullbacks for adjustments are normal. Historically, it is known that some pullbacks of 30-50% are quite normal, and some can even pull back by 80%.
ETH may seem unremarkable on the surface, but it has never been absent. Don’t underestimate the long-established second place, especially since Trump's son is involved in it.
The first stage of the bull market has ended, and after adjusting, we are about to enter the second stage. The specific cycle may be around New Year's or before the year ends.
Currently, traditional off-exchange capital has not yet entered, including the recent noise from Microsoft. We are still in a stage where people inside are self-excited, and the rise of many coins is also due to leverage; it needs to be cleared before it can rise.
In the second stage, I personally feel that ETH will have a rally or that there is a demand for ETH to catch up.
There is also a second stage of deleveraging (pinning) which will be more intense than before, but the overall direction of the market remains upward, so it is sufficient to accumulate spot positions when the price drops. In a bull market, many people say they lose money; avoid contract leverage or high multiples. For those with sufficient capital, don’t argue with me, as most people cannot accept pullbacks.
I have not exited my positions from the first stage, especially for long cycles, because I know this is just the beginning. Anyway, buying spot when prices drop is now difficult, or buying at highs is risky. Many assets are rising today, and I believe the increase in the second stage will make those who escaped at the top regret their decision. This is a bull market.
A miner is also a standard feature of a bull market. Looking back at historical FIL, previous miners have also multiplied several times. This is not my strong suit; I don’t understand it well, but I know what happened back then. I believe that after that person comes to power, it gives me infinite fantasies. Those who talk about a bear market really don't want to argue. Let me educate you on the economic cycle.
