The United States will announce the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November tonight, with the market focusing on its impact on whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates. This data could become a crucial factor in determining whether the Fed will take action to lower rates in December or January next year. (Background: Tokyo CPI exceeded expectations, shocking the market, causing the yen to soar 120 points! Expectations for a rate hike in Japan in December are rising; beware of a repeat of the chaotic unwinding of arbitrage positions.) (Context: Japan's CPI is higher than expected; will there be a rate hike in December? Beware of a repeat of the hot money withdrawal from yen arbitrage trading, reminiscent of the August stock market crash.) Bitcoin has currently rebounded to the $98,000 level, and whether it can reclaim the $100,000 mark is under scrutiny. The CPI data released by the U.S. tonight at 9:30 PM could influence whether the Fed will cut rates again by the end of this year or in January next year, reminding you of the potential increased volatility risk. Core indicator for rate cut expectations: CPI data The market currently estimates the year-on-year CPI growth rate for the U.S. in November to be 2.7%, slightly higher than October's 2.6%. If the latest data can demonstrate further easing of inflation, it will strengthen market confidence in a Fed rate cut. According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, the Fed may lower rates by 0.25 percentage points in December and January next year. Additionally, the federal funds futures market has been active recently, with January and February contract volumes reaching new highs, indicating a significant increase in investor expectations for a rate cut. Currently, the market estimates that the probability of a 0.2 percentage point rate cut by the Fed in December has reached 80%, a significant increase from last month's 64%. The probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 86.1%. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market's forecast probability for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 86.1%, while the probability of choosing to pause rate cuts is only 13.9%. Against the backdrop of upcoming policy announcements from central banks around the world, the risk of market volatility has intensified, and investors need to closely monitor relevant developments. Source: FedWatch Tool Early positioning for rate cut opportunities Morgan Stanley strategist Matthew Hornbach even suggests that investors can position themselves early, especially focusing on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 18. He recommends buying February federal funds futures contracts or adopting overnight index swap (OIS) rate strategies related to the January meeting. Furthermore, last week's unexpectedly weak employment data has further boosted market expectations for a rate cut in December. Financial market analyst Kyle Rodda stated: "If tonight's CPI data meets market expectations, it will open the green light for a Fed rate cut and may even become a new catalyst for the gold market." Key focus on U.S.-Japan central bank dynamics next week Next week marks a super central bank week, with major central banks including the U.S., U.K., and Japan holding intense decision-making meetings, among which the decisions of the U.S. Fed and Japan are the most closely watched. Currently, the U.S. benchmark interest rate is 4.75%, Japan's is 0.25%, and the U.K.'s is 4.75%. If the U.S. cuts rates and Japan decides to raise rates the following day, it could trigger volatility in international markets, reminiscent of the yen arbitrage unwinding tide seen in August, cautioning users about risks. Meiji Yasuda Research Institute economist Yuichi Kodama pointed out: "The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December has exceeded 50%, but the appreciation of the yen may delay the rate hike until January next year." Related reports Tokyo CPI exceeds expectations, shocking the market, yen soars 120 points! Expectations for a rate hike in Japan in December are rising; beware of a repeat of the chaotic unwinding of arbitrage positions. Japan's CPI is higher than expected; will there be a rate hike in December? Beware of a repeat of the hot money withdrawal from yen arbitrage trading, reminiscent of the August stock market crash. CPI inflation is controlled) Bitcoin drops $5,000 after breaking $93,000, over 250,000 people liquidated in a dual slaughter. "Volatility Alert) The U.S. CPI will make a significant impact; will it open the green light for the Fed's rate cut in December?" This article was first published on BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).