At the recent shareholder meeting, Microsoft shareholders voted down a proposal that the board study investing 1% of total assets in Bitcoin.

Proposal Overview

The proposal was put forward by the National Center for Public Policy Research, suggesting that Microsoft consider diversifying 1% of its $78.4 billion in cash and securities into Bitcoin as a strategy against inflation.

The results of the shareholder vote and market reaction

After the voting results were announced, Microsoft's stock price fluctuated around $446, remaining essentially flat.

Bitcoin's price also fell after the news was released, dropping by 4% within 24 hours to $95,700.

This reaction indicates the market's disappointment over Microsoft's failure to join the ranks of Bitcoin investors.

Polymarket's odds

In the discussion of whether Microsoft will invest in Bitcoin, Polymarket provides an interesting perspective.

According to Polymarket data, investors believe the probability of Microsoft investing in Bitcoin is only 13%.

This data is not merely a poll result, but is derived from actual market transactions, giving it higher credibility.

13% probability: The market believes that Microsoft's likelihood of investing in Bitcoin is low, but if it happens, it would be a significant positive.

87% probability: The market generally believes that this proposal will not succeed, which may bring a slight negative.

With this quantitative data, the market has long since digested this low-probability event and there is no need for excessive concern.

The event with a 13% probability did not occur and does not constitute a substantive negative.

Michael Saylor tried his best!

Michael Saylor pointed out in his speech that Microsoft has forfeited about $200 billion in capital over the past five years through dividend payments and stock buybacks, funds that could have been used to purchase Bitcoin.

He believes Microsoft missed the opportunity to achieve higher returns through Bitcoin investment. However, despite Saylor's arguments attracting some attention, shareholders still chose to act cautiously.