As the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year approaches, the CPI data to be released tonight is drawing significant attention. The market generally expects a slight rebound in overall CPI, although the Federal Reserve strives to keep the inflation rate within the target range of 2%. However, the volatility of recent economic indicators has raised considerable uncertainty, especially in the context of Trump soon returning to the White House, where future trade policies and tax reforms may have additional impacts on the path of interest rate cuts.
CPI is coming, but the outlook for interest rate cuts has changed
Data from AICoin (aicoin.com) shows that the market expects tonight's U.S. inflation data to possibly exceed the levels of the past three months, recording 2.7%. Although inflation data will have a significant impact on the short-term market trend, the threshold for this CPI data to completely reverse interest rate cut expectations is relatively high under the circumstance that a 25 basis point cut is almost a foregone conclusion. As of the time of writing, the probability of the interest rate market betting on a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve next week is as high as 86%.
It is reported that most Federal Reserve officials still hold high hopes for mid-term targets, but the path for inflation to return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target seems increasingly difficult. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated last week that the strong U.S. economy means the Federal Open Market Committee can be "more cautious" in lowering rates to neutral levels. Some viewpoints suggest that in the short term, economic cooling will support the Fed's continued rate cuts, but combined with concerns about re-inflation after Trump takes office again, it may constrain the space for medium to long-term rate cuts. According to market expectations, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to remain on hold early next year.
Capital inflow, the trend of BTC mainstreaming accelerates
Currently, the market has largely digested the expectation of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates this month. On a daily level, the U.S. dollar index shows signs of further strengthening, while the Nasdaq has been in a continuous decline, but has consistently found support near the EMA52 moving average over the past quarter. Meanwhile, BTC is experiencing a critical turning point. After breaking through $100,000, Bitcoin has already seen two extreme market conditions with significant downward spikes, aligning with the expectations of Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz. He warned that a global Bitcoin buying frenzy is underway, but there is significant leverage in the system, which will likely lead to one or two sharp corrections.
Moreover, U.S. institutional investors are aggressively buying Bitcoin. From established players like MicroStrategy and Tesla to potential entrants like Microsoft and Amazon, Bitcoin's expansion into the mainstream world seems to be accelerating.
Meanwhile, the funding scale of the U.S. spot BTC ETF continues to expand, achieving net inflows for eight consecutive trading days, with a cumulative amount of up to $3.969 billion. This trend of capital inflow demonstrates the market's long-term optimism about Bitcoin.
Additionally, sources reveal that Trump is very concerned about the price of Bitcoin and is now "very hopeful" that Bitcoin will continue to rise and eventually break through $150,000.
Expectations for Bitcoin's new high
The market consensus seems to be that Bitcoin is sprinting towards $120,000, or even $150,000.
Main players are bullish
Large holders have strong confidence in Bitcoin's future price. According to the tracking of major orders, large holders are bullish in the short term, looking towards $100,000 to $105,000, with Binance spot large holders placing a massive order of $149 million within this range. For longer-term trends, the main players are bullish towards $110,000 to $120,000, and based on comprehensive depth data, Coinbase large holders have placed a sell order of $22 million (≈200 BTC) at the $110,000 level and are betting over $24.6 million (≈205 BTC) at the $120,000 level.
At the same time, Coinbase's premium has turned positive, and U.S. market leaders have once again shifted to buying, further confirming the market's positive sentiment.
Technical outlook is positive
• Short-term: BTC has formed a W-bottom pattern on the 30-minute and 1-hour timeframes. If it breaks through $98,135 to $98,320, it will again challenge the $100,000 mark.
• Mid-term: BTC is supported by the Vegas channel on the 4-hour timeframe; the 8-hour timeframe is testing the MA40 moving average resistance. If it breaks through, the prospect of returning to $100,000 will be validated again.
• Long-term: A strong adjustment structure has emerged. Although the MACD fast and slow lines have returned to the zero axis, the price remains above the EMA24, and a significant upward trend is expected.
In summary, tonight's CPI data will be an important factor affecting short-term market trends, but it is unlikely to shake the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations. Looking at the long cycle, BTC momentum remains strong, and future trends may still see breakthrough developments.
