Many friends are curious about the reason for last night's drop. Here, Lao Dong simply explains:
Speaking of which, this drop is definitely not due to any negative policy. At that time, the market was fine, the US stock market was also performing normally, and last night, Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 480 million in funds, with major contributor BlackRock accounting for nearly 400 million of that. The inflow for ETH's ETF was also 150 million. In summary, the data on the capital front is sufficient to support Bitcoin's fluctuation around 100k, so the reason for the drop is not here.
On a macro level, the latest probability of a December interest rate cut from CME has increased to nearly 90%. If tomorrow night's CPI data is not particularly bad, a December rate cut is a done deal. No matter how you look at it, this is not a negative.
I carefully observed that the drop occurred around 12 o'clock, and at that time the market indeed released a very subtle piece of news, namely that Google CEO announced that Google's latest quantum computing chip Willow achieved astonishing results in benchmark tests: it completed a standard calculation in less than 5 minutes, which would take top supercomputers over 10^25 years — longer than the age of the universe!
Subsequently, Musk and OpenAI's Altman both expressed astonishment and congratulations, and then the cryptocurrency market collapsed. Bitcoin led a bunch of altcoins downwards.
Moreover, why are so many people reporting positions? There are statistics showing that the number of people reporting positions across the network exceeded 572,000, which is five times more than the 100,000 reported in March 2020. The amount of reported positions in 24 hours also set a record of 1.75 billion. This is actually quite easy to explain; it is precisely because there were no adverse fundamental or capital factors last night. In fact, there was even a Russian lawmaker proposing to strategically reserve Bitcoin. MicroStrategy increased its position by 2.1 billion to purchase 21,550 Bitcoins, and Trump's second son commented on cryptocurrency, saying that rational regulation would make the US a crypto hub. Moreover, yesterday afternoon's moderately loose monetary policy in the country was also favorable to cryptocurrency. In summary, under such a backdrop of numerous positive factors, traders lowered their vigilance, thinking that holding long positions overnight was very reassuring, which led to such a tragic report of positions at such a high amount.
#Microsoft Bitcoin Investment Voting Case
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